Wednesday, January 8, 2020

Don't let him see this headline



At least it looks like SOMEbody realizes this is serious enough to lose sleep.

As more details emerge of the missile strikes on military bases in Iraq, it is becoming increasingly clear that Iran aimed to miss. Iraq’s government was tipped off so Americans and Iraqis had enough time to take cover. There are still no confirmed reports of casualties.

[...]

For good measure, Iranian media were seeded with stories of dozens of US casualties.

  Guardian
Are we sure about that?
Washington has its own messianic lobby which is arguably even more influential. Both the secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, and Vice-President Mike Pence represent a strand of evangelical Christianity which views events in the Middle East through the prism of biblical prophecy, with Iran playing the role of evil embodied hurtling towards an apocalyptic battle with the forces of good. Both Pompeo and Pence are reported to have urged Trump to pull the trigger on Suleimani.
Bring on that rapture.
In pushing for conflict with Iran, they have allies among traditional hardline conservatives. The leader of that group, John Bolton, has left the White House, but his influence lives on. But while they can cajole Trump into military action on occasion by playing on his fear of appearing weak the president remains deeply averse to all-out war, especially in an election year.
Assumming he's halfway sane, which he isn't.
The relief and triumph with which Trump drove down the off-ramp Iran had provided was evident in his Wednesday morning speech.

[...]

In any case, it seems unlikely even this round of tit-for-tat retaliation is really over. Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, said the missiles were just a “slap in the face” and insufficient remedy for the loss of Suleimani.
All that shit may be for show, including Trump killing Soleimani, and the real shit could be going on and coming on in the cyber world.
More importantly, both sides are still set on the same paths that lead straight to the brink. The fact that they managed to stop themselves falling over the edge this time is of small comfort if they are going to dust themselves off and race down the same course again.
...but hey, do what you want...you will anyway.

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