Showing posts with label real estate. Show all posts
Showing posts with label real estate. Show all posts

Friday, February 14, 2025

Trump 2.0 - Burn it all down

One of X owner Elon Musk's proposed initiatives at the Department of Government Efficiency has been to sell off buildings used by government workers for a quick injection of cash into federal coffers.

However, as The American Prospect's David Dayen explains, the timing of such a sale could be bad at the moment given the current precarious state of the commercial real estate market.

In his latest analysis, Dayen talks to experts who believe that a mass selloff of government real estate at the moment is like "playing with fire" and could be a domino that sends the market for commercial real estate into a downward spiral.

  
Surely Trump doesn't approve of that!
"Older office space is experiencing record vacancy levels, with owners struggling to refinance the buildings," writes Dayen. 'Putting large amounts of it on the market could have dramatic consequences, including damaging the economy in cities like Washington, D.C. It could lead to widespread defaults in financial securities linked to commercial mortgages. And if unchecked, that could lead to broader pain."

[...]

Things get particularly dicey given the exposures that many banks have to commercial real estate loans, and a major erosion in property values could even spur bank panics, writes Dayen.

"The GSA fire sale is a recipe for generating tons of distress in a market that’s already in trouble, and it could spark something that rages out of control," he warns.

[...]

Dayen also interviews Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, a professor of real estate and finance at the Columbia Business School, who argues that "every additional shock is painful" to the commercial real estate market and that he's unsure if the team at DOGE has "thought this fully through."
They're 19 years old. Do they think ANYTHING through?

Tuesday, January 21, 2025

Location, location, location

Buy Greenland, reclaim the Panama Canal, annex Canada.  It's all real estate for Trump.



...but hey, do what you want...you will anyway.

Wednesday, April 21, 2021

What lesson did banksters learn from the 2008 financial disaster?

They learned they could get away with it. .
This time, the issue is not a bubble in the housing market, but apparent widespread inflation of the value of commercial businesses, on which loans are based.

[...]

A longtime industry analyst has uncovered creative accounting on a startling scale in the commercial real estate market, in ways similar to the “liar loans” handed out during the mid-2000s for residential real estate, according to financial records examined by the analyst and reviewed by The Intercept. A recent, large-scale academic study backs up his conclusion, finding that banks such as Goldman Sachs and Citigroup have systematically reported erroneously inflated income data that compromises the integrity of the resulting securities.

[...]

[W]hen boiled down to its essence, the story of the housing bubble of the 2000s, and plausibly Wall Street’s actions today, is simple: It’s counterfeiting.

[...]

And this industrywide scheme is colliding with a collapse of the commercial real estate market amid the pandemic, which has business tenants across the country unable to make their payments.

[...]These income overstatements might cause defaults under any circumstances. But it has been particularly dangerous in a severe economic downturn like the one caused by the coronavirus pandemic.



  The Intercept
Read the details here.

..but hey, do what you want...you will anyway.

Monday, November 25, 2019

Don't worry, the titans of capitalism will save the world

The rise and catastrophic downfall of WeWork founder and former CEO Adam Neumann has been chronicled in gleeful detail across the international financial press in the wake of his company’s ill-fated attempt at a public offering — which resulted in disastrous revelations about the company’s mismanagement, its devaluation and, ultimately, Neumann’s resignation.

But a new Vanity Fair article by Gabriel Sherman, titled “Inside the Fall of WeWork,” asserts that Neumann’s “millennial entitlement gone insane” and guru-like “egomaniacal glamour” extended beyond the business world and into the world of Middle East diplomacy.

[...]

Last summer, some WeWork executives were shocked to discover Neumann was working on Jared Kushner’s Mideast peace effort. According to two sources, Neumann assigned WeWork’s director of development, Roni Bahar, to hire an advertising firm to produce a slick video for Kushner that would showcase what an economically transformed West Bank and Gaza would look like.”

Kushner, he added, “showed a version of the video during his speech at the White House’s peace conference in Bahrain last summer.”

Sherman reported that Neumann also told his colleagues “that he was saving the women of Saudi Arabia by working with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to offer women coding classes.”

Finally, an anecdote that connected Neumann both to Kushner and the Saudi prince involved a claim by Neumann that three people were going to save the world: Crown Prince Mohammed, Jared Kushner and Neumann himself.

  Haaretz
What do you want to bet Kushner and the Crown Prince agree?

After all the WeWork scandal in the news, I still had to look up just WTF the company is. According to Wikipedia:
WeWork is an American commercial real estate company that provides shared workspaces for technology startups and services for other enterprises.
And saves the world, of course.
You might have heard of Adam Neumann, the grifter mastermind behind WeWork, a failing real estate company that claims to be worth many billions.

  The Guardian
I know that person under a different name: Donald J Trump.
Neumann, like Mark Zuckerberg or Travis Kalanick, Uber’s founder, is another offspring of Silicon Valley’s slash and destroy culture, reaping great wealth off a startup that was either actively corrosive or merely unnecessary.

After a disastrous public offering that forced Neumann out, WeWork, which rents office spaces from landlords and refurbishes them as tony workspaces for customers, announced this week it would lay off 2,400 employees. The cuts represent 19% of its workforce. Neumann, the former CEO, was set to walk away with a $1.7bn golden parachute. [...] Backlash from WeWork’s beleaguered employees may trim the deal – Softbank, the Japanese conglomerate that has been propping WeWork up with investment cash, could cut some of Neumann’s benefits.

But either way, he will exit the company he built a very wealthy millionaire or technical billionaire. He will never want for anything again. The same can’t be said for the 2,400 about to be unemployed.

The WeWork story is now a disturbingly familiar one, in an era when the economics of major startups can seem as surreal and ludicrous as whatever happens in the White House. Capitalism has always been a deeply flawed way of arranging a society, but big business, until around the 21st century, was at least bound by a few basic laws of monetary gravity. You were successful when you produced more revenue than the cost of running the business. You expanded when your profit margins increased.

[...]

Ford or US Steel or IBM could not just lose money and indefinitely survive. Their stock would plummet. Headquarters and factories would shutter.
Those days are gone.
While a few of the tech behemoths, like Amazon, Facebook and Google, do indeed turn profits, many others don’t come close. In the startup world, the logic is inverted, the math alchemic. You are worth the appeal of your idea to a bunch of rich people and companies who will keep giving you money in the hope that one day a fiction will be made real. You can keep losing money at spectacular rates as long as you, like a junkie after the next quick fix, keep expanding, at whatever maniacal clip the market justifies.

[...]

Uber is far more nefarious, driving down the wages of drivers and clogging city streets with unsustainable levels of traffic. It’s an unregulated cab company helmed by vulture capitalists.
And just lost its license to operate in London.
WeWork is comparatively benign: a lousy real estate company, conceived by Neuman, that tricked a lot of people into thinking it was something more.

[...]

WeWork’s initial public offering showed it burned through billions a year, racking up huge losses as it continued to rent out office space in just about every city imaginable.

The business model, if it can be called that, is vulnerable to economic downturns, since WeWork is locked into long-term leases with its landlords. Tenants of WeWork can more easily walk away if business goes sour. But WeWork can’t exit a 10-year lease from an office building if a space suddenly goes vacant.
SoftBank doesn't have a savvy lending department? Or is this a friend-of-Jared-Kushner thing?

...but hey, do what you want...you will anyway.