Showing posts with label census. Show all posts
Showing posts with label census. Show all posts

Thursday, June 2, 2022

The 2020 Census has implications for 2024 elections

At the risk of overusing a phrase, the 2024 presidential election may be the most important — and perhaps the closest — in history. Last week’s Census Bureau announcement of serious errors will impact the next decade’s congressional apportionment and delegations, and play a crucial role in the presidential race. Given the nature of the mistakes, Democrats could hang onto the presidency under particularly controversial circumstances due to publicly-acknowledged errors.

The Census Bureau acknowledged that 14 states had significant miscounts in the 2020 census. See if you notice a pattern here: Among the overcounted states are Hawaii, Delaware, Rhode Island, Minnesota, New York and Massachusetts. Five of these six voted for Joe Biden in that year’s presidential election. The undercounted states were Texas, Illinois, Florida, Mississippi, Tennessee and Arkansas. Five of these six voted for Donald Trump.

[...]

With the possible exception of Illinois not losing a seat, the likely effects of an accurate count would have overwhelmingly aided red states.

  The Hill
So that would be an ironic, but deserved outcome since it was the Trump administration's attempt to weed out "illegals" (Mexicans and immigrants) from the count.
[I]t is difficult to understand how the Census Bureau missed more than 5 percent of the populations of Arkansas, Delaware and Hawaii.

[...]

Simply put, the revised figures show that (mostly) red states had even quicker relative population growth compared to the rest of the country — and especially compared to (mostly) blue states. It is entirely possible that undercounted states could have gained at least one seat in Congress, while overcounted states may have lost at least one each.

[...]

There was significant surprise that population growth winners such as Texas and Florida didn’t gain more seats.
Hmmm, the two states with probably the most Latinos.
Had states known the true figures within the past year, the redistricting process would have been very different for the miscounted states. Not only are the number of seats per state affected, but the district lines are, as well. In addition, the Electoral College determines the weight per state based on the total representatives and senators. The loss or gain of a single seat affects two Electoral College votes — the one gained by one party, and thus lost by the other.

[...]

Can this blunder be corrected in time for either the midterms or the 2024 presidential election? Nope.
So sad.
The only potential life-preserver for the GOP is that the current Supreme Court could consider a challenge based on the accurate figure. As of now, no challenge exists — and the time to file one is rapidly running out.
Don't be surprised if the GOP makes it under the wire.

Tuesday, March 2, 2021

Gina Raimondo - Commerce Secretary

The Senate confirmed Rhode Island Gov. Gina Raimondo on Tuesday as the next secretary of the U.S. Commerce Department.

With a 84-15 confirmation vote that was delayed by a procedural move in February by Republican Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, Raimondo is set to lead one of the federal government's most eclectic departments, which includes the Census Bureau, close to two months after President Biden announced the Democratic governor's nomination.

  NPR
Did it take that long to wake Wilbur Ross and get him out of the office?
As secretary, Raimondo is set to take on a portfolio of agencies that also includes the Minority Business Development Agency, U.S. Patent and Trademark Office, and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

[...]

Among Raimondo's most urgent agenda items in the coming weeks is overseeing the processing and release of the first results of the 2020 census, which are now more than two months overdue because of delays stemming from COVID-19 and last-minute schedule changes by the Trump administration.
In an attempt to further depress democracy and keep Republicans in power.
Unlike the previous administration, Raimondo is expected to defer to the expertise of the Census Bureau. In January, bureau officials said they expect to finish running delayed quality checks on the new state population counts used to determine representation in Congress and the Electoral College by the end of April.

"I commit to taking the politics out of [the] census, relying on expertise and doing everything I can to rebuild people's trust in the census," Raimondo told lawmakers during the Senate hearing. "It needs to be accurate."

Still, Raimondo is set to inherit ongoing court challenges against the Commerce Department and Census Bureau, including a lawsuit by the state of Ohio over the bureau's decision to also push back the release of the redistricting data needed to redraw voting maps by about six months to allow for more quality checks.

 [...] 

Those redistricting data, which cannot be produced until after the bureau finishes processing the apportionment counts, are now expected by Sept. 30. But the office of Ohio State Attorney General Dave Yost is asking U.S. District Judge Thomas Rose to order the bureau to deliver the data to the states by March 31. That date is the current legal deadline that may be extended through legislation a bipartisan group of U.S. senators say they plan to introduce soon.

A court hearing for Ohio's lawsuit is tentatively scheduled for March 19.
Ohio (and other "red" states) do not want quality checks to be made. They don't want non-citizens counted.

...but hey, do what you want...you will anyway.

Tuesday, July 21, 2020

Thursday, June 18, 2020

Another thought on the DACA setback for Trump


It strikes me that Trumpland's desire to get away with things and to prove themselves above the law may be at the heart of the  matter.  Why do things in an illegal manner that will be thrown out by the Supreme Court if there's a legal way to do it?  (Also, to show domination of the justices if they vote in Trump's favor regardless of legality.)

...but hey, do what you want...you will anyway.

Saturday, June 6, 2020

Every shyster knows, the jury can't unhear something

When the U.S. government’s official jobs report for May came out on Friday, it included a note at the bottom saying there had been a major “error” indicating that the unemployment rate likely should be higher than the widely reported 13.3 percent rate.

The special note said that if this “misclassification error” had not occurred, the “overall unemployment rate would have been about 3 percentage points higher than reported,” meaning the unemployment rate would be about 16.3 percent for May.

[...]

The BLS admitted that some people who should have been classified as “temporarily unemployed” during the shutdown were instead misclassified as employed but “absent” from work for “other reasons.”

[...]

“BLS and the Census Bureau are investigating why this misclassification error continues to occur and are taking additional steps to address the issue,” said a note at the bottom of the Bureau of Labor Statistics report.

  WaPo
Why put out the report at all when you know there's an error?
“You can 100% discount the possibility that Trump got to the BLS. Not 98% discount, not 99.9% discount, but 100% discount,” tweeted Jason Furman, the former top economist for former president Barack Obama. “BLS has 2,400 career staff of enormous integrity and one political appointee with no scope to change this number.”

[...]

The only political appointee at the BLS is the commissioner, who, Groshen said, does not have access to the data and only sees the finalized report.

[...]

Economists say the BLS was trying to be as transparent as possible about how hard it is to collect real-time data during a pandemic.

[...]

This problem started in March when there was a big jump in people claiming they were temporarily “absent” from work for “other reasons.” The BLS noticed this and flagged it right away. In March, the BLS said the unemployment rate likely should have been 5.4 percent, instead of the official 4.4 percent rate. In April, the BLS said the real unemployment rate was likely about 19.7 percent, not 14.7 percent.

[...]

“It’s surprising the BLS couldn’t come up with fixes to make this work in May,” said Erica Groshen, the former BLS commissioner under Obama. But, she adds, “This is a very unusual situation. There are lots of field staff who had a tried and true way of asking questions and they were doing what they were used to doing.”

Friday, February 21, 2020

Jesus, these people

The Republican National Committee is sending documents labeled “2020 Congressional District Census” to people in California and across the country just weeks before the start of the official nationwide count of the country’s population.

Critics say the misleading mailers — in envelopes labeled “Do Not Destroy. Official Document” and including a lengthy questionnaire on blue-tinted paper similar to the type used by the real census — are designed to confuse people and possibly lower the response rate when the count begins in mid-March.

  LA Times
Because they can't win if they don't cheat.

They should be fined. Big.
The top of the mailer states it is “commissioned by the Republican Party.” In smaller print on the second page, below a request for donations, is a notice that it is paid for by the Republican National Committee. Included in the envelope is a four-page letter from National Committee Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel asking for donations to the party and a promise to support Trump in 2020.

Unlike the official census form, the RNC survey is largely made up of political questions, such as whether the respondent supports using military force against Iran, thinks race relations in the country are getting worse and believes “political correctness” has gotten out of hand.

[...]

With billions of dollars in federal funding on the line and a chance that California could lose a seat in Congress based on the census results, critics worry some residents will fill out the mock census document and ignore or throw away the real one.
That's the plan, I'm sure.
Daniel Wessel, a spokesman for the Democratic National Committee, called the RNC mailer “intentionally deceptive” and “reprehensible.” Democrats also use surveys, but he said they do not attempt to disguise them as official government documents.

The Republican National Committee referred questions about the mailer to the Trump reelection campaign.
Which certainly suggests that's who's responsible for it, and the RNC is just footing the bill.
Trump campaign spokeswoman Samantha Zager noted that the documents are marked as coming from the Republican National Committee. She would not discuss other details, including how many mailers were sent, where they were sent and why the committee called it a “census.”

It’s not the first time that the Trump administration has been accused of trying to suppress census response rates. The Supreme Court last year blocked the Commerce Department from adding a citizenship question to the census, which experts said would have likely led to an undercount in states such as California that have large immigrant populations.

[...]

Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) said many of the people who have contacted her office said they first heard about the mailer from their confused elderly parents who were unsure if the document was the official census. Similar stories are popping up across the country, with particular concern for residents who don’t speak English fluently or who are unfamiliar with government documents.

[...]

The RNC sent similar mailers ahead of the 2010 census. After that, Congress passed the Prevent Deceptive Census Look Alike Mailings Act, sponsored by Rep. Carolyn B. Maloney (D-N.Y.). The law bars non-government groups from sending solicitations with the word “census” on the envelope through U.S. mail.

The most recent RNC mailer does not use the word census on the envelope, though it is used repeatedly on the mailer itself.
Despicable. I hope 2020 sees Republicans lose from the top of the ticket to the bottom.
The official 2020 census begins in mid-March and responses can be submitted through the mail or online. The government asks for biographical information, including who lives in the home, their age and race. It does not ask questions about politics or ask for money.

Many states, including California, are spending millions of dollars to ensure an accurate count in the decennial census, the results of which are used over the next 10 years to determine how many representatives a state gets in Congress and how much money states and cities receive. Local governments use the data to decide where schools and fire stations should be built.

Wednesday, July 17, 2019

Loser



...but hey, do what you want...you will anyway.

Friday, July 12, 2019

Barr is as slimey and medacious as his boss



Actually, they can be forgiven for thinking that.  Trump has said as much himself.
July 5, 2019, 10:21 AM CDT / Updated July 5, 2019, 2:11 PM CDT

By Dartunorro Clark

President Donald Trump on Friday said he is looking at issuing an executive order to add a citizenship question to the 2020 census.

"We're thinking about doing that, we have four or five ways we can do it, it's one of the ways we're thinking about doing it very seriously," Trump said when asked about using an executive order to add the question.

"We can start the printing (of the census forms) now and maybe do an addendum after we get a positive decision, so we're working on a lot of things, including an executive order," he added.

  NBC
Aaaaaaaaaaaand...



Barr himself.

...but hey, do what you want...you will anyway.

UPDATE:

The exciting news



So, no executive order to add the citizenship question.  DOJ attorneys required by the judge to file precise reasons they want to withdraw from the case.  Will the DOJ simply drop the case altogether?

But, more importantly, what does this order do?  Could they not have been given that information without the order?  I think he just likes having his name on official paper.  And saying he got that done where no other president could.
President Trump on Thursday abandoned his quest to place a question about citizenship on the 2020 census, and instructed the government to compile citizenship data from existing federal records instead, ending a bitterly fought legal battle that turned the nonpartisan census into an object of political warfare.

[...]

“We are not backing down on our effort to determine the citizenship status of the United States population,” Mr. Trump said.

  NYT
Of course not. Whoever thought that? Silly Millies.
Even that order appears to merely reiterate plans the Commerce Department announced last year, making it less a new policy than a means of covering Mr. Trump’s retreat from the composition of the 2020 census form.

[...]

Opponents of the citizenship question swiftly condemned Thursday’s announcement, calling Mr. Trump’s position largely a face-saving measure.

“The government already has access to all of this citizenship data through administrative records, and already studies it,” said Vanita Gupta, the former head of the Justice Department’s civil rights division and the chief executive of the Leadership Conference. “Trump just didn’t want to admit defeat.”
FAKE NEWS!
A frustrated-sounding Mr. Trump struck a sharply combative tone at the opening of his remarks, saying that his political opponents were “trying to erase the very existence of a very important word and a very important thing, citizenship.”

“The only people who are not proud to be citizens are the ones who are fighting us all the way about the word ‘citizen,’” he added.

[...]

Mr. Trump made the clearest statement yet that his administration’s ultimate goal in obtaining data on citizenship was to eliminate noncitizens from the population bases used to draw political boundaries — a longstanding dream in some Republican circles.

[...]

“This information is also relevant to administering our elections,” said Mr. Trump. “Some states may want to draw state and local legislative districts, based upon the voter eligible population.”
Precisely what led the courts to block it.
The Census Bureau for decades has relied on data from other agencies to check the accuracy of their head counts. For the purposes of obtaining citizenship data, the Census Bureau could identify American citizens with some precision by mining immigration data from the federal Citizenship and Immigration Services agency, which is part of the Department of Homeland Security, and data from programs that require citizenship to participate, such as Social Security numbers and some taxpayer identification numbers. Other citizenship data come from the Census Bureau’s American Community Survey, which asks a small fraction of the population questions — including on citizenship — every month.

[...]

“It’s all extremely protected by privacy laws,” Ms. Anderson said. “Even if the Census Bureau put together administrative records on citizens and noncitizens on an individual basis” — which would not necessarily be compiled into some sort of central registry — “for that to be given to anybody would require a major new law.”
That'll be his next executive order.
The Census Bureau has said that it intends to provide anonymous data on citizenship to states in 2021, in a data file separate from census results.
So, never mind. EO not needed.
Following Mr. Trump to the Rose Garden podium on Thursday, his attorney general, William P. Barr, said that any administration move to modify the census would have survived legal review, but only after a lengthy process that would have jeopardized the administration’s ability to conduct the census in a timely manner.
Oh, sure. Sure. You COULD have won the case.
“Put simply, the impediment was a logistical impediment, not a legal one,” Mr. Barr said. “We simply cannot complete the litigation in time to carry out the census.”
Especially since the court quite frankly said you lied about your reasoning and wouldn't let your lawyers out of the case so you could put another crew on who hadn't already liedd.
In a statement, a Justice Department spokeswoman said the department would “promptly inform the courts” that the government would not seek to include a citizenship question on the census.
Curses. Foiled again.

...but hey, do what you want...you will anyway.

Thursday, July 11, 2019

He's gotta be lovin' this

Got the "Fake News" reporting opposite stories.







...but hey, do what you want...you will anyway.

UPDATE 7/11:

Right on cue...



Actually, they can be forgiven for thinking that.  Trump has said as much himself.
July 5, 2019, 10:21 AM CDT / Updated July 5, 2019, 2:11 PM CDT

By Dartunorro Clark

President Donald Trump on Friday said he is looking at issuing an executive order to add a citizenship question to the 2020 census.

"We're thinking about doing that, we have four or five ways we can do it, it's one of the ways we're thinking about doing it very seriously," Trump said when asked about using an executive order to add the question.

"We can start the printing (of the census forms) now and maybe do an addendum after we get a positive decision, so we're working on a lot of things, including an executive order," he added.

  NBC
Aaaaaaaaaaaand...



Barr himself.


UPDATE:

Monday, July 8, 2019

Of course he does


Attorney General William Barr said Monday that he believes the Trump administration can legally add a citizenship question to the 2020 census, though the Supreme Court ruled against its inclusion last month

  The Hill
If the Supreme Court that Mitch McConnell force-built to do their bidding doesn't do their bidding, then it's irrelevant.
“I agree with [Trump] that the Supreme Court decision was wrong,” Barr told the AP. The attorney general added that he thinks there is “an opportunity potentially to cure the lack of clarity that was the problem and we might as well take a shot at doing that.”
If we disagree with the Supreme Court, then the Supreme Court will just have to be ignored.
AP cited a senior official who said President Trump is expected to issue a presidential memorandum to the Commerce Department directing them to include the citizenship question on the 2020 census. Action is expected to be taken in the coming days.
Is it okay to call it a dictatorship now?



Bench Pelosi.

...but hey, do what you want...you will anyway.

Sunday, July 7, 2019

Let me guess...


...after the shit His Lardship pulled, the old ones quit in disgust.

Friday, July 5, 2019

Duh, Your Honor, we can't find a reason, but we're still trying

Last week, the Supreme Court ruled against the Trump administration proposal to ask 2020 census respondents whether or not they are U.S. citizens, saying that administration officials had not provided an adequate reason for asking this question.

[...]

The Trump administration said on Friday it would continue to look for ways to add a question about citizenship to the 2020 census after missing a deadline to provide an adequate reason for it.

[...]

In response, U.S. District Judge George Hazel said that he will proceed with the process of discovery, a way for opposing parties to gather evidence, which could determine whether the Trump administration proposed the citizenship question with the intention of discriminating against minorities.

“Plaintiffs’ remaining claims are based on the premise that the genesis of the citizenship question was steeped in discriminatory motive,” Hazel wrote in a court order.

[...]

Earlier Friday, the president told reporters at the White House that “we’re fighting very hard” against the ruling, saying that he would consider issuing an executive order.

“We have four or five ways we could do it,” he said.

  HuffPo
I call bullshit.

...but hey, do what you want...you will anyway.

UPDATE:



Probably not helping his cause

The court has set the deadline for a good reason to add the census question of citizenship for today (Friday) at 2pm.





Which is why the court rejected the plan.





Sir, he said come back with a different reason - one he could approve.

...but hey, do what you want...you will anyway.

UPDATE:  Missed it by THIS much.

Wednesday, July 3, 2019

Census question insanity








Excerpts:

The judge:






Atty Gardner:














If only.














The judge:











We can ALL tell you what happened:  Trump happened.  And we're all paying the price.




Did the judge just say the government is a sly and useless twat?





I think we've been hit.  Several times.  We just don't know we're dead.

UPDATE: