Narrowly averted threat

I've changed my mind about whether the government would shoot something down without knowing what it was.

Probably.  And what did it cost to scramble TWO F-22s and fire a fucking AIM-9X Sidewinder missile at it?

A military spokesperson tells NPR it's their understanding that the FBI has spoken to the hobbyist group in question — the Northern Illinois Bottlecap Balloon Brigade, based just north of Chicago — in an apparent attempt to determine whether their small ["pico" balloon, similar to a Mylar party balloon,] might have inadvertently caused a big ruckus.

  NPR

Oh sure. Blame the hobbyists. Not the knee-jerk, politically coward government that freaked out after Republicans started squealing about incompetence for not immediately shooting down a Chinese spy balloon that they knew was a Chinese spy balloon.

[The Northern Illinois Bottlecap Balloon Brigade] say their balloon launches follow all federal regulations.

[...]

K9YO-15 was launched last fall by members of the Bottlecap Balloon club — the group takes its name from the Pixar movie Up, which prominently features both balloons and a bottle cap.

Its journey began with a launch from Libertyville, Ill., on Oct. 10, 2022. Before it disappeared, it was one of the club's longest-flying balloons; in its 123 days aloft, it had circumnavigated the Earth nearly seven times.

[...]

The Biden administration said on Friday that it cannot confirm any reports potentially identifying the objects that were shot down, citing ongoing investigations.

Shoot first. Identify later.

In the days since, speculation has grown over the possibility that the U.S. Air Force shot down the 32-inch silver Mylar balloon. On Friday, the NIBBB posted a statement saying there is presently no connection between its balloon and the unidentified object shot down by the F-22 last weekend.

Well, shit. I wouldn't expect anything left to BE recovered after shooting down a mylar balloon with a Sidewinder!

Balloons like K9YO-15 are inexpensive — when asked for a cost estimate, Bowen replied, "I don't think you'd break $100."

"Some of them are the same silver balloons you buy in the grocery store," he said, "and I mean from the same manufacturer of the same model."

[...]

"These balloons are pressurized just below the point of popping," Bowen said. "So if you can hit them with [aircraft] turbulence, they'll pop. If they get hit with a sonic boom from nearby, absolutely going to pop. Those are the easiest ways to pop them."

Or you could use a Sidewinder missile.

...but hey, do what you want...you will anyway.

UPDATE 09:40 am:

Your tax dollars at work.

So they say

Astronomers say a Chinese satellite has been caught on video beaming down green lasers over the Hawaiian Islands.

[...]

The lasers flashed for just a couple of seconds and were initially thought to be from a NASA altimeter satellite. The NAOJ put out a correction note on Monday, Feb. 6 that said NASA scientists “did a simulation of the trajectory of satellites that have a similar instrument and found a most likely candidate as the ACDL instrument by the Chinese Daqi-1/AEMS satellite.”

[...]

“It’s a Chinese satellite that is measuring pollutants, among other things,” said University of Hawaii Institute of Astronomy’s Roy Gal. “It has many different instruments on it … Some kind of topographical mapping or they’re also used for measuring stuff in Earth’s atmosphere, and I think that’s what it is, environmental measurement satellite.”

  The Hill

So now we're just guessing.

A former chief of staff of Marine Forces Pacific had a different perspective. “I’m not sure, and this is my opinion, why the Chinese — who are probably some of the most prolific polluters on the planet — would be collecting data on pollutants on this side of the Pacific,” say Ray L’Heureux.

Good question.

“The U.S. has satellites to do the same thing, so, in this case, despite all the flurry, well deserved flurry, about Chinese spy satellites and other devices, this one is just orbiting earth and has a known orbit,” Gal said.

[...]

“It seems to me that those tensions are there. People are a little antsy, and I think that we just need to be a little bit more aware, vigilant,” L’Heureux said.

A little more honest a long time ago might have gone a long way.

Hopefully, Mitch, they're coming to take you home.

UPDATE 07:52 pm:

The UFOs just keep on coming

Hope we're not making them really mad by shooting them down.

I find it very difficult to believe that the government is shooting down things they are unable to identify - or at least have some idea what it is.  Really.

...but hey, do what you want...you will anyway.

UPDATE 02/18/2023:  I've changed my mind about whether the government would shoot something down without knowing what it was.

Probably.  And what did it cost to scramble TWO F-22s and fire a fucking AIM-9X Sidewinder missile at it?

A military spokesperson tells NPR it's their understanding that the FBI has spoken to the hobbyist group in question — the Northern Illinois Bottlecap Balloon Brigade, based just north of Chicago — in an apparent attempt to determine whether their small ["pico" balloon, similar to a Mylar party balloon,] might have inadvertently caused a big ruckus.

  NPR

Oh sure. Blame the hobbyists. Not the knee-jerk, politically cowardly government that freaked out after Republicans started squealing about incompetence for not immediately shooting down a Chinese spy balloon that they knew was a Chinese spy balloon.

[The Northern Illinois Bottlecap Balloon Brigade] say their balloon launches follow all federal regulations.

[...]

K9YO-15 was launched last fall by members of the Bottlecap Balloon club — the group takes its name from the Pixar movie Up, which prominently features both balloons and a bottle cap.

Its journey began with a launch from Libertyville, Ill., on Oct. 10, 2022. Before it disappeared, it was one of the club's longest-flying balloons; in its 123 days aloft, it had circumnavigated the Earth nearly seven times.

[...]

The Biden administration said on Friday that it cannot confirm any reports potentially identifying the objects that were shot down, citing ongoing investigations.

Shoot first. Identify later.

In the days since, speculation has grown over the possibility that the U.S. Air Force shot down the 32-inch silver Mylar balloon. On Friday, the NIBBB posted a statement saying there is presently no connection between its balloon and the unidentified object shot down by the F-22 last weekend.

Well, shit. I wouldn't expect anything left to BE recovered after shooting down a mylar balloon with a Sidewinder!

Balloons like K9YO-15 are inexpensive — when asked for a cost estimate, Bowen replied, "I don't think you'd break $100."

"Some of them are the same silver balloons you buy in the grocery store," he said, "and I mean from the same manufacturer of the same model."

[...]

"These balloons are pressurized just below the point of popping," Bowen said. "So if you can hit them with [aircraft] turbulence, they'll pop. If they get hit with a sonic boom from nearby, absolutely going to pop. Those are the easiest ways to pop them."

Or you could use a Sidewinder missile.

Second "object" shot down

So, is this more Chinese balloon stuff, or...alien?  Whatever, I don't see how this helps the Biden Administration in combatting complaints from MAGA world that he didn't shoot down the Chinese balloon soon enough.

The U.S. military on Friday afternoon shot down a "high-altitude object" flying over Alaskan airspace and Arctic waters, National Security Council official John Kirby confirmed at the White House.

[...]

"The object was flying at an altitude of 40,000 feet and posed a reasonable threat to the safety of civilian flight," Kirby told reporters during the White House briefing. "Out of an abundance of caution, and at the recommendation of the Pentagon, President Biden ordered the military to down the object and they did and it came inside our territorial waters and those waters right now are frozen."

[...]

The pilots were able to determine that it was "unmanned" before it was shot down, he added.

[...]

Kirby made clear the U.S. does not know who owns the object and he would not call it a balloon, like the one allegedly owned by the Chinese government that the U.S. military shot down last weekend.

[...]

Officials did not understand the full purpose of the object, Kirby added, saying the U.S. expects that it will be able to recover the debris. "A recovery effort will be made and we're hopeful that it'll be successful and then we can learn a little bit more about it," he said.

The object, which the U.S. learned about on Thursday evening, was described as "roughly the size of a small car," Kirby said.

  NBC

So...UFO, in other words.

I say we pull Elon in and ask him what he knows about it. 

 ...but hey, do what you want...you will anyway.

UPDATE 2/11/23: Right on cue...

Republicans are ramping up their criticism of the Biden administration’s handling of the Chinese spy balloon, after receiving classified briefings on the incursion and learning the U.S. shot down a second object above Alaska.

[...]

Some GOP lawmakers are arguing it shows the U.S. did, indeed, have the capabilities to down the Chinese balloon immediately.

[...]

“China sent a spy balloon to fly all across America. The Biden administration had a chance to shoot it down over Alaska and they chose to let it spy all across America. End of story,” Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) told reporters following an all-senators briefing on Thursday.

  The Hill

Actually, no. The story from the Biden administration is that they decided to jam the balloon's capability of sending info to China and watch where it went and what it was collecting. They knew what it was, and that's typical protocol when spying is detected. They say they don't know what the second object was or who controlled it. Not the same story at all.

The situation was even more fraught in the House briefing, after which Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) boasted about how she “chewed out” administration officials. According to multiple lawmakers, Greene shouted obscenities and said “I don’t believe you” at the briefers as they tried to explain why they waited for the balloon to reach the Atlantic coast.

“I tore ‘em to pieces,” Greene said.

God, that woman.

Trump sought to make political hay out of the situation. In a number of Truth Social posts, Trump claimed that the “Chinese would never have floated the Blimp (“Balloon”) over the United States if I were President!!!”

We know. And Putin would have never invaded Ukraine. 

Oh, but, oops..

China flew multiple balloons over the U.S. during Trump’s presidency, though they were not detected at the time.

And I also heard one report that it's just they didn't tell him, and that's very believable.

The perfect picture for the GOP circus

...but hey, do what you want...you will anyway.

The spy balloon

The Pentagon and other U.S. officials say it's a Chinese spy balloon — about the size of three school buses — moving east over America at an altitude of about 60,000 feet (18,600 meters). The U.S. says it is being used for surveillance and intelligence collection, but officials have provided few details.

[...]

China insists the balloon is just an errant civilian airship used mainly for meteorological research that went off course due to winds and has only limited “self-steering” capabilities.

[...]

A Pentagon spokesman said it could remain aloft over the U.S. for “a few days,” extending uncertainty about where it will go or if the U.S. will try to safely take it down. And late Friday, the Defense Department acknowledged reports of a balloon flying over Latin America — assessed as “another Chinese surveillance balloon.”

[...]

U.S. officials say the Biden administration was aware of it even before it crossed into American airspace in Alaska early this past week. A number of officials spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive topic.

[...]

In the first public U.S. statement, Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder, the Pentagon press secretary, said Thursday evening that the balloon was not a military or physical threat — an acknowledgement that it was not carrying weapons. He said "once the balloon was detected, the U.S. government acted immediately to protect against the collection of sensitive information.”

[...]

Even if the balloon is not armed, it poses a risk to the U.S., said retired Army Gen. John Ferrari, a visiting fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. The flight itself, he said, can be used to test America's ability to detect incoming threats and to find holes in the country's air defense warning system. It may also allow the Chinese to sense electromagnetic emissions that higher-altitude satellites cannot detect, such as low-power radio frequencies that could help them understand how different U.S. weapons systems communicate.

[...]

According to senior administration officials, Biden initially wanted to shoot the balloon down. Some members of Congress have echoed that sentiment.

But Pentagon leaders strongly advised Biden against doing so because of risks to the safety of people on the ground, and Biden agreed.

He said the Chinese may have sent the balloon “to show us that they can do it, and maybe next time it could have a weapon. So now we have to spend money and time on it” developing defenses.

One official said the sensor package the balloon is carrying weighs as much as 1,000 pounds. The balloon is large enough and high enough in the air that the potential debris field could stretch for miles, with no control over where it would eventually land.

[...]

Administration officials said Friday there have been other similar incidents of Chinese spy balloons, with one saying it happened twice during the Trump administration but was never made public.

  Yahoo

I wonder how you "protect against the collection of sensitive information" in this situation.

I'm going to go out on a limb here and suggest that at the very least there will be increased hate crimes against Chinese Americans.

...but hey, do what you want...you will anyway.

UPDATE 02/05/2023:  They killed the balloon.

Perhaps he never had their votes in the first place.

UPDATE :

Perhaps the most believable answer - if the least reassuring - is that he didn't even know about it.  There were reports that military and other national intelligence information was withheld from him for fear of what he would do with the information.