Signs and Omens? - Part 3

The tight race between Democrat Danny O'Connor and Republican Troy Balderson just got tighter.

Election officials in Franklin County found 588 previously uncounted votes in a Columbus suburb. The result: O'Connor had a net gain of 190 votes, bringing the race's margin down to 1,564.

"The votes from a portion of one voting location had not been processed into the tabulation system," according to a Franklin County Board of Elections news release.

  USA Today

I wonder how many others there might be.

Balderson declared victory Tuesday night in the closely watched congressional district race in central Ohio. But O'Connor says he's waiting for all votes to be counted.

That includes 3,435 provisional ballots and 5,048 absentee ballots, which will be tabulated by Aug. 24.

Balderson is backed by President Donald Trump and Ohio Gov. John Kasich. The race was surprisingly close for a district that Trump won by 11 percentage points in 2016 and Republicans have held for decades.

If the final results show a margin of 0.5 percent or less, state election officials will hold an automatic recount.

Republican strategist Evan Siegfried said Wednesday that the results from Ohio's special election has him "terrified" about the GOP's prospects in this year's midterms.

"This is a district that President Trump won by 11 points. No Democrat has been elected to this House seat since 1980," Siegfried said on "MSNBC Live." "We are having a very big problem."

  The Hill

The whole world is having a very big problem, and the biggest chunk of it sits in the White House.

Despite the warnings, Trump declared victory on Tuesday as Balderson held a 50.2 percent to 49.3 percent lead over O'Connor with 100 percent of the precincts reporting. But more than 3,300 provisional ballots were yet to be counted, leaving the outcome still unknown.

"I think Republicans are really trying to shine something that isn’t good," Siegfried said.

They've been doing that for decades.

Alarmed by the tight race for a congressional seat in Ohio, Republicans are steeling for a 90-day campaign of trench warfare as they fight to keep control of the House, pinning their hopes on well-funded outside groups and a slashing negative message about Democrats.

Voting across the Midwest and West laid bare the party’s precarious situation on Wednesday: Ohio’s special election exposed deep vulnerabilities in the historically conservative suburbs of Columbus, and the Republican candidate there held a slim lead over his Democratic challenger.

In Kansas, a nomination fight for governor also remained too close to call the day after the primary, with a hard-right candidate threatening to topple the state’s Republican incumbent and splinter the party down ballot.

And in primaries from suburban Detroit to Seattle, Democrats selected hard-charging candidates in districts long held by the Republican Party.

[...]

[S]enior party strategists have concluded that over a dozen districts held by Republicans may already be unwinnable, most in metropolitan areas where President Trump has alienated moderates and stirred volcanic resistance on the left.

[...]

“There’s a real likelihood that they not only win the House, but they win it by 10 or 12 more seats than they need,” said Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, voicing publicly what many Republican officials have begun to acknowledge privately this summer.

Mr. Graham said a Democratic takeover was no sure thing, noting that “in the era of Trump, things can change in 24 hours, for good or bad.”

  NYT

Especially with hackable voting machines, eh?

...but hey, do what you want...you will anyway.

Signs and omens? - Part 2

[I]n Ohio's 12th district, in which Troy Balderson edged ahead of Denny O'Connor, but not far enough that provisional ballots might not throw the whole thing into a recount and, considering that these two have to run again in November, Balderson may well end up being an actual congressman for approximately 11 minutes.

It is just as ominous a result for Republicans as people are saying it is, despite the mendacious little cock-a-doodle-doo from the president*, who is treating Balderson at the moment as though he were a valet parking attendant at the old Taj. This is a district designed by Republican state legislators to the specifications of John Boehner—who used to be someone, as you may recall. If Balderson is still sweating death by tabulation at noon on the day after the election, something truly is up.

[...]

This is not a party in turmoil or disarray. This is a party covering all the bases.

And that's where the Missouri referendum comes in.

Right to work is a fundamental Republican issue. It is a conservative article of faith. It has been a goal of the corporate conservative movement ever since that beast was revived in the 1970s. It is the emotional core at the heart of the careers of people like Scott Walker, the goggle-eyed homunculus hired by Koch Industries to manage their midwest facility formerly known as the state of Wisconsin. There is almost nobody in the party who is opposed to it in principle or in practice. It was central to the mission of all those Republican state legislatures that got elected in 2010 and 2014. The assumption was that right-to-work was unassailable.

  Charles P Pierce

...but hey, do what you want...you will anyway.