The 2020 Census has implications for 2024 elections

At the risk of overusing a phrase, the 2024 presidential election may be the most important — and perhaps the closest — in history. Last week’s Census Bureau announcement of serious errors will impact the next decade’s congressional apportionment and delegations, and play a crucial role in the presidential race. Given the nature of the mistakes, Democrats could hang onto the presidency under particularly controversial circumstances due to publicly-acknowledged errors.

The Census Bureau acknowledged that 14 states had significant miscounts in the 2020 census. See if you notice a pattern here: Among the overcounted states are Hawaii, Delaware, Rhode Island, Minnesota, New York and Massachusetts. Five of these six voted for Joe Biden in that year’s presidential election. The undercounted states were Texas, Illinois, Florida, Mississippi, Tennessee and Arkansas. Five of these six voted for Donald Trump.

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With the possible exception of Illinois not losing a seat, the likely effects of an accurate count would have overwhelmingly aided red states.

  The Hill

So that would be an ironic, but deserved outcome since it was the Trump administration's attempt to weed out "illegals" (Mexicans and immigrants) from the count.

[I]t is difficult to understand how the Census Bureau missed more than 5 percent of the populations of Arkansas, Delaware and Hawaii.

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Simply put, the revised figures show that (mostly) red states had even quicker relative population growth compared to the rest of the country — and especially compared to (mostly) blue states. It is entirely possible that undercounted states could have gained at least one seat in Congress, while overcounted states may have lost at least one each.

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There was significant surprise that population growth winners such as Texas and Florida didn’t gain more seats.

Hmmm, the two states with probably the most Latinos.

Had states known the true figures within the past year, the redistricting process would have been very different for the miscounted states. Not only are the number of seats per state affected, but the district lines are, as well. In addition, the Electoral College determines the weight per state based on the total representatives and senators. The loss or gain of a single seat affects two Electoral College votes — the one gained by one party, and thus lost by the other.

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Can this blunder be corrected in time for either the midterms or the 2024 presidential election? Nope.

So sad.

The only potential life-preserver for the GOP is that the current Supreme Court could consider a challenge based on the accurate figure. As of now, no challenge exists — and the time to file one is rapidly running out.

Don't be surprised if the GOP makes it under the wire.