Saturday, September 21, 2019

About that Saudi oil facility attack

You know, the one that has the administration in chaos over whether to attack Iran.
The Trump administration intensified its focus on Iran [...] as the likely culprit behind attacks on important Saudi Arabian oil facilities over the weekend, with officials citing intelligence assessments to support the accusation and President Trump warning that he was prepared to take military action.

The government released satellite photographs showing what officials said were at least 17 points of impact at several Saudi energy facilities from strikes they said came from the north or northwest. That would be consistent with an attack coming from the direction of the northern Persian Gulf, Iran or Iraq, rather than from Yemen, where the Iranian-backed Houthi militia that claimed responsibility for the strikes operates.

  NYT
Because it's not as advantageous for striking back at Iran if the attack came from Yemen.
Administration officials, in a background briefing for reporters as well as in separate interviews on Sunday, also said a combination of drones and cruise missiles — “both and a lot of them,” as one senior United States official put it — might have been used.
"Might have been."
Mr. Trump, however, did not name Iran, saying he needed to consult with Saudi Arabia first.
Because he can't make a move without being told by Saudi what move to make.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Saturday that Iran was behind what he called “an unprecedented attack on the world’s energy supply” and asserted that there was “no evidence the attacks came from Yemen.” He did not, however, say where they came from, and the Saudis refrained from directly blaming Iran.
Well, that's not suspect at all.
The administration’s determination that Iran played a direct role in the attack marked a significant escalation in months of back-and-forth tensions between the United States and Iran. It raised questions about how Washington might retaliate — and why Iran would have risked such a confrontation.

Mr. Trump’s warning echoed one he made in June after Iran shot down an American surveillance drone. He said then that the military had been “cocked and loaded” for a strike against Iran.

He said he called off the strike with 10 minutes to spare when a general told him that 150 people would probably die in the attack.

[...]

Administration officials said on Sunday they would seek to declassify more intelligence to buttress their case against Iran in the coming days.
No doubt.
The satellite photographs released on Sunday did not appear as clear cut as officials suggested, with some appearing to show damage on the western side of the facilities, not from the direction of Iran or Iraq.
Somebody call up Colin Powell.

I don't know why they're making things more difficult for themselves. Why not just call Yemen Iran's proxy and be done with it?
President Emanuel Macron of France has said he hopes the meeting of the United Nations General Assembly, which opens Tuesday, will be an opportunity for de-escalation between the United States and Iran.
If a promise to rein in Yemen doesn't work, maybe Iran can do some investigating of Elizabeth Warren in exchange for sanctions relief.

...but hey, do what you want...you will anyway.

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