Regime change for Venezuela falters

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro announced that Venezuela is breaking diplomatic relations with neighbouring Colombia and gave Colombian diplomats 24 hours to leave the country.

“My patience has run out, we can’t keep allowing Colombian territory to be used for attacks against Venezuela,” he stated to the crowd.

[...]

His comments came at a large anti-imperialist rally in Caracas held under the slogan ‘Hands off Venezuela.’

Tensions have reached new heights along the Venezuelan-Colombian border after self-proclaimed “Interim President” Juan Guaido pledged that aid would enter the country on Saturday “no matter what.”

  Venezuelanalysis

Looks like Guaidó is learning what many coup attempters have before him: the US will let you down at the last minute. Now he looks like he can't deliver. Of course, it's not over yet, but the Venezuelan people who back Maduro have been handed a great morale victory.

Caracas has denounced the move as a precursor for a US-led military intervention into the country and proceeded to shut down the borders with Dutch Caribbean Islands, Brazil and Colombia on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday respectively. This stance has been supported by both the Chinese and Russian governments, with Russian foreign office spokespersons telling reporters Friday that the “aid” scheme “resembled those in Iraq and Libya.”

[...]

During his speech at the end of the rally, Maduro declared that the “coup d’état” initiated by Juan Guaido 30 days ago had been “defeated” and told his followers that they are “on the right side of history” before challenging Guaido to compete in elections.

He won't, because he knows he would lose.

Maduro also promised to apply justice against anyone who violates Venezuelan law, citing a number of right-wing activists who led isolated incidents of violent protests at the Colombo-Venezuelan border towns of Urena and San Antonio in Táchira State Saturday. The violent protests set fire to a public bus and burnt tyres in the streets in an attempt to open the border crossing.

Finally, Maduro reiterated earlier reports that his team are coordinating US $2 billion worth of “technical humanitarian assistance” channeled through the United Nations, as well as receiving 7.5 tonnes of medicine from Russia.

“Of course there are problems in Venezuela,” he told the crowd, “But who is going to solve them? Mr Trump? Or the Venezuelans?”

I think we know their answer.

The International Red Cross [...] voiced further criticism of the border actions taken by Guaido, this time denouncing the illegal use of its symbols by Guaido’s followers on both the Brazilian and Colombian borders. The Red Cross had previously joined the United Nations in describing the aid plan as “politicised.”

I assume Guaidó is still in Colombia, but I don't know. So far, Maduro hasn't called for his arrest.

The tense day saw a handful of skirmishes between right-wing activists left in Colombia after Friday’s “Live Aid” concert and the Venezuelan military. Despite the activists flanking the “aid” trucks as they approached the closed border in Simon Bolivar international bridge, the trucks were able to pass the checkpoints, as tear gas and rubber bullets were used to repel the opposition militants, with witnesses reporting the use of molotov cocktails and other weapons in attempts to try to force entry into Venezuela.

[...]

No deaths were reported on the Colombian border, but a number of wounded are receiving medical attention.

[...]

A tense standoff in Pacaraima on the Venezuelan-Brazilian border resulted in trucks coming from Boa Vista being blocked. The region had seen two deaths Friday when indigenous citizens apparently supporting the entry of the “aid” confronted a military convoy en route to the border, and there were unconfirmed reports of four more deaths in the sector Saturday.

[...]

Unconfirmed claims later in the day from Colombian migration offices suggested that 23 Venezuelan soldiers had abandoned their posts during the day, but no more details have been made available.

《Ser Allendista y no ser Chavista es una contradicción ideológica》 - Pablo Sepúlveda Allende ‏ 
("To be an Allendista and not be a Chavista is an ideological contradiction.")

Bingo.

Case in point:

Trump has been talking up war with Maduro since 2017, when he repeatedly asked McMaster for a plan to overthrow Maduro. New McCabe book confirms Now, Trump says "all options are on the table" and Rubio objects to Senate resolution that forbids war.

I want aid to get to Venezuelans. But let's be honest - Venezuela didn't just lurch into humanitarian crisis. The aid is being sent there now as part of a regime change strategy. Many are hoping that it will be the match that lights a civil war against Maduro.

Senator Rubio rushed to tweet out reports today of Maduro allies firing into Colombian territory, warning that the "the United States WILL help Columbia confront any aggression against them." Venezuela ordered Colombian diplomats out in 24 hours, ramping up the crisis.

Maduro is evil, and the U.S. should pursue a strategy to undermine him and prompt new elections. No one can defend what he has done to Venezuela. But it's quite a different thing for the U.S. to incite a civil war with no real plan for how it ends (sound familiar?).

And finally - and perhaps most importantly - go look up the 1947 Rio Treaty, It's a western hemisphere mutual defense treaty, and may not require a war declaration if Trump is legitimately coming to the defense of Colombia. Don't think the Venezuela hawks don't know this.

Indeed it sounds familiar.  Works every time.

But, Senator Murphy wipes it all out with his next tweet:



This is not democracy promotion, and every time you pretend it might be, you show your true colors. This is regime change for the benefit of the US hegemony.  He who controls the oil wins.

(Not exactly "to raise the international community formally".  More like

"formally propose to the international community that we have to open all options".)

And to do that, we have to remove sanctions and free up their money in the US and UK.

But we won't.

UPDATE:  It appears Guaidó is indeed still in Colombia, and scheduled to meet with Mike Pence tomorrow.