Tuesday, December 3, 2019

Tariff Man strikes again

President Trump on Monday announced plans to impose tariffs on steel and aluminum from Brazil and Argentina, opening a new front in his global trade war even as he seeks to resolve other trade disputes ahead of the 2020 presidential election.

Trump announced on Twitter that he would levy tariffs after imposing quotas on steel and aluminum from Brazil and Argentina in early 2018. While both the quotas and the tariffs they would replace were issued under national security powers, Trump said Monday he was acting in response to the sliding value of each country’s currency against the dollar.

"Brazil and Argentina have been presiding over a massive devaluation of their currencies. which is not good for our farmers,” Trump tweeted.

  The Hill
So, steel and aluminum tariffs will help our farmers?
Trump in March 2018 levied tariffs of 25 percent and 10 percent on steel and aluminum, respectively, imported from Europe, Canada, Mexico, China and several other nations. The White House issued those tariffs under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, which empowers the president to impose duties on imports to protect U.S. national security.
Which was also bullshit.
The White House trade office has not yet published a formal notice to increase tariffs, even though Trump tweeted Monday the hikes would be effective immediately.
So maybe it didn't even happen.
Trump’s surprise move to penalize two ailing economies, including one of a close ally, surprised trade experts.

Trump’s targeting of Brazil stunned some trade watchers because of his apparently close relationship with Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro. Bolsonaro, who has been frequently compared to Trump, has forged close ties with his U.S. counterpart and appeared stunned by the announcement, according to The Washington Post.

“If necessary, I’ll call Trump. I have an open channel with him,” Bolsonaro told reporters in Brasilia, according to the Post.

[...]

Trump has sought to downplay the blowback of his trade policies for farmers and manufacturers by pointing to the success of the broader economy under his watch, in particular the stock market. The president touted the steady rise of the stock market in his Monday announcement, but the move caught markets off guard, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 268 points despite strong Black Friday weekend sales.

[...]

Imposing new tariffs on other countries “could be a way” for Trump “to show that he's willing to keep being tough without actually hitting China directly, which could be politically unfeasible at the moment,” said Rachel Pierson, managing director and head of research at Beacon Policy Advisors.

“The [U.S.-China] relationship is fragile now, and there's been some talk that trade discussions between the two countries have stalled.”

[...]

Pierson also suggested that the tariffs could be an attempt to undercut Brazil and Argentina as the countries fill the void left by American farmers in the U.S.-China trade war.

[...]

The president temporarily hiked tariffs on steel and aluminum from Turkey in August 2018 as the Turkish lira plummeted amid a domestic financial crisis.

Trump reversed his decision in May after Turkey released a jailed American pastor, but the federal Court of International Trade ruled last month that the president violated his tariff authority by increasing those tariffs beyond the designated timeline in Section 232.

That ruling could raise questions about Trump's latest move.

Pierson said that the court ruling against Trump over tariffs on Turkish goods makes the president’s decision to target Brazil and Argentina “vulnerable” to a legal challenge.

[...]

The steel tariffs were not the only trade move Monday. After markets closed, the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) said it had determined that a French tax on digital services unfairly targeted American tech companies and proposed tariffs of up to 100 percent on $2.4 billion of French products.

Which is really just Trump asking for strikes at Macron.
Trade watchers sought to make sense of Monday's moves.
Why?

...but hey, do what you want...you will anyway.

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