The Russian playbook

In 1997, a Russian political scientist named Aleksandr Dugin and a serving Russian General named Nikolai Klokotov sat down and wrote a text that would become the foundation of Russian geopolitical strategy over the next 20 years. It was called “Foundations of Geopolitics” and it was all about how Russia could reassert itself in the world.

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The book starts out by saying that the shrewd thing for Russia to do is to steer clear of direct military confrontation. Instead, the book counsels Russian leaders to favour political stealth. It emphasises the need for the infiltration of Western institutions, and the use of soft power to shape the world in Russia’s favour.

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The text then goes into a very specific list of to-dos, about Russia’s posture towards almost every nation on earth.

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The book argues that Ukraine should - surprise, surprise - be annexed by Russia. “Ukraine as a state has no geopolitical meaning, no particular cultural import or universal significance, no geographic uniqueness, no ethnic exclusiveness, its certain territorial ambitions represents an enormous danger for all of Eurasia and, without resolving the Ukrainian problem, it is in general senseless to speak about continental politics.” It goes on to argue that the only use for an independent Ukraine would be to provide a barrier to Europe, but that it’s not necessary.

Next, it turns to Britain. The book’s authors say Russia should encourage Britain to leave the European Union, and thus weaken it.

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Score so far, Putin: 2, Rest of World: 0.

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It identifies Iran as a key ally for Russia, and recommends that Turkey should receive a series of “geopolitics shocks” using Kurds and Armenians to keep it off-balance.

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It says that China should be encouraged to have its geopolitical posture aligned to its south – Indo-China (except Vietnam), the Philippines, Indonesia, Australia - so that Russia can remain predominant on the “Eurasian” mainland. It also talks about making Germany and France the predominant powers in the European Union, in order to unbalance that alliance, and encourage an anti-Atlantic sentiment on the continent. Score so far is Putin: 6, Rest of World: 0.

But perhaps most amazing part of the book is when it calls for Russia to “introduce geopolitical disorder into internal American activity, encouraging all kinds of separatism and ethnic, social and racial conflicts, actively supporting all dissident movements – extremist, racist, and sectarian groups, thus destabilising internal political processes in the U.S. It would also make sense simultaneously to support isolationist tendencies in American politics.” If that reads like an accurate description of Trump’s inner-circle, again remember that this text was written twenty years ago.

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They believed that the West had [...] infiltrated their institutions in the late-1980s, and weakened the Soviet state from within. They therefore sought revenge in kind - influencing the institutions of other countries, to return Russia to what they considered its rightful place as a superpower.

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Of course, every nation has influential strategic thinkers who help leaders shape their thinking, but the Foundations of Geopolitics has had an outsized influence since it’s publication 20 years ago. By some accounts, the book has been used to teach a generation of military officers in Russia, while Dugin himself continues to be considered a member of Putin’s inner circle.

There are many factors that go into geopolitics — and it can be easy to overstate Putin’s influence in what are tendencies that may have arisen anyway. But reading through the document, it is hard to escape the conclusion that much of Russia’s foreign policy has been shaped by Dugin and Klokotov’s thinking - and that that is in turn, shaping the way the world is heading.

  News.au

...but hey, do what you want...you will anyway.