Wednesday, November 22, 2017

Lebanon tango

The Lebanese prime minister, Saad Hariri, has said he is suspending the resignation that he announced two weeks ago from Saudi Arabia, easing a crisis that had deepened tensions around the Middle East.

[...]

The unusual nature of Hariri’s surprise resignation on 4 November prompted fears that he had been forced to leave office under the orders of his regional backers.

It came against a backdrop of a regional power tussle between Saudi Arabia and Iran and renewed Saudi condemnation of Hezbollah, Hariri’s partners in government.

[...]

Lebanon’s president, Michel Aoun, had argued that he would not accept Hariri’s resignation unless he presented it in person, saying that he was acting on the assumption that Hariri had been held in Riyadh against his will.

Hariri said he presented his resignation to Aoun at the presidential palace, but then responded to Aoun’s request to take more time for consultations, “hoping it will constitute a serious introduction for [national] dialogue”.

[...]

Top Lebanese officials accused Hariri’s patron, Saudi Arabia, of forcing his resignation and detaining him in the kingdom for days. The Lebanese rallied around Hariri, unanimously calling for his return from Saudi Arabia in what became an embarrassment to the kingdom.

Hariri’s announcement suggests that Saudi Arabia’s young crown prince realised he had overreached by firing Hariri, which constituted another failed move to try to counter Iran.

His resignation was followed by a steep escalation in Saudi statements against the Lebanese government, which includes Hezbollah.

  Guardian
This is the closest analysis I've seen of what's going on with Saudi Arabia to matching the interview Jeremy Scahill conducted with Rami Khouri, journalism professor at the American University of Beirut. The bottom line that I got out of it was that Saudi's bin Salman desperately needs a win (much like Trump) and hoped to cause a destabilization of Hezbollah by this latest move, and Khouri indicates that attempting to destabilize Hezbollah is a mistake, an endeavor bound to lose.

Not to mention: is bin Salman blind to the consequences for his own country of further destabilization of the Middle East?  Oh, wait.  We have our own "leader" who's blind to anything he might cause to happen that isn't directly related to his own personal gratification and petty grievances - someone who blunders about throwing wrenches and insults everywhere he goes.

...but hey, do what you want...you will anyway.

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