President Donald Trump announced that he and Chinese President Xi Jinping had a “very positive” call on trade. The two leaders, he said, had resolved tensions over rare earth mineral exports, and their teams would meet again soon. Xi welcomed Trump to visit Beijing.
Invitations were exchanged. Smiles posted. Beneath the surface, almost nothing changed.
A 90-day tariff truce brokered in Geneva was already unraveling when Thursday’s call took place. Xi’s message was diplomatic but direct: Steer this “big ship” away from sabotage—or else. Trump, of course, heard what he wanted: a deal he could sell, regardless of whether one exists.
We’ve seen this play before. The handshakes. The headlines. The claim that he alone can fix it. The problem is that rational trade policy isn’t the goal. Performance is.
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That’s what the floated China trip is about. If Xi Jinping offers him just enough symbolic respect, Trump might return to the U.S. proclaiming victory without ever touching the hard questions: IP theft, state subsidies, rare earth controls.
That’s why China’s posture isn’t just strategic. It’s psychological. Beijing knows Trump has no appetite for drawn-out talks or institutional give-and-take. They’re not offering structural reform or reciprocal liberalization. They’re offering the illusion of deal-making. Carefully stage-managed meetings. Polished communiqués. Soft words that can be twisted into triumph. It’s diplomacy as theater—because that’s all Trump’s capable of absorbing.
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Trump isn’t averse to risk. He’s averse to blame. What looks like caution is often just delay—waiting for a scapegoat to emerge. He’s happy to escalate as long as someone else is holding the bag when it goes sideways. That’s why, even in areas of possible progress—like cracking down on fentanyl precursors or negotiating critical mineral access—he won’t anchor to a position. Anchoring means owning the outcome. And Trump only bets when he can rig the table.
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America cannot negotiate coherently when its leader does not distinguish between national interest and personal standing. The Chinese side knows this. They know that Trump’s advisers, however competent or hardline, are window dressing. That the only briefing that matters is the one that reaches Trump’s sense of grievance.
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Meanwhile, American industry remains paralyzed. The 90-day pause has not brought clarity. It has brought a holding pattern, which China is far better equipped to exploit. Xi can afford to wait.
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This is why every theory used to describe Trump eventually breaks down. The madman theory? Trump doesn’t act erratic to induce strategic advantage—he’s just erratic.
The transactionalist theory? That presumes negotiation in good faith. Trump’s idea of a deal is one where the other side is locked into something unenforceable while he walks away.
The “three-dimensional chess” metaphor? Please. This isn’t chess. It’s Calvinball.
Trump is a prestige actor. Not in the sense of dignity or tradition, but in the theatrical sense. He craves dominance and praise. He needs to be seen “winning.” That’s the outcome every move is calibrated to support.
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Trump’s advantage isn’t unpredictability. It’s that too many still treat him like a conventional negotiator, knowing full well he isn’t—because it’s easier, safer, or more profitable than calling it what it is.
He doesn’t need success. He needs spotlight. That makes real policy impossible—even for his own team. They’re not crafting strategy. They’re staging scenes and then managing the fallout.
Contrarian
UPDATE 06/19/2025:
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