Clarifying Trump's Manhattan verdict

In the federal system, a person is not technically a felon or a convict until sentencing. But Trump was convicted in New York, and that state imposes this designation at the time of the jury verdict. That already entails privations. The New York City Police Department is seeking to revoke his license to carry a concealed weapon. Thirty-seven countries—including Canada and the United Kingdom—have laws prohibiting felons from entering (though they can, of course, make exceptions).

[...]

[Trump's] interview with the probation office [may have covered] any number of factors for consideration in the office’s sentencing recommendation.

Chief among these, and most problematic for Trump, is acceptance of responsibility for the crime. Generally speaking, defendants, even unrepentant ones, know to at least feign remorse at this stage. But Trump is constitutionally incapable of admitting guilt.

  The Atlantic

Of course, we don't know. He's a weasel, and he may have been convinced that he had to appear - at least to the board - to be contrite. The public didn't get to see, so it remains to be seen how he behaves between now and sentencing. I fully expect after sentencing - if not sooner - for him to be just as remorseless publicly as ever.

If Merchan does impose a sentence of jail followed by probation, my guess is he will then stay the sentence to permit Trump to pursue his one mandatory appeal.

[...]

A stayed sentence does not imply freedom from court oversight. [...] Trump’s conditions of release would remain within Merchan’s discretion, and that’s where they would remain should the appeals court reverse the judgment, assuming the district attorney elects to retry the case, as I think he would.

[...]

Almost invariably, the appeal moves forward while the convict goes immediately into probationary supervision, remaining there unless the case is overturned.

Probation is onerous and its restrictions are determined somewhat arbitrarily, often by probation officers whose recommendations the court tends to accept. It can entail all kinds of potential restrictions and government intrusions, starting with mandatory regular visits to the probation officer. One hundred or more hours of community service is a not-uncommon term of probation. And a long list of standard restrictions applies, including limits on travel, unannounced searches, and drug testing at the probation officer’s discretion. If Trump committed any additional crimes (not ones currently pending), he could be jailed in New York immediately.

[...]

Once he becomes a probationer, Trump, who all his life has acted as if the rules don’t apply to him, would exist in a “pretty please” world, subject to the ultimate discretion of a judge whom he has trashed ceaselessly and in vile terms.

I'll be very surprised if Trump suffers any of these "normal" conditions.

That state of affairs would endure for the entire probationary term and by that point, one or more of the other criminal cases against him may well have gone to trial. Each of them, especially the two federal cases, is strong, and each carries substantially greater penalties than the New York case. A single additional conviction would make the former president a multiple felon with a criminal history, and the system would treat him more harshly yet. Legal troubles tend to compound.

But those (federal) cases will not make it to trial if Trump gets back into the Oval Office.

But even that contingency wouldn’t make them go away. Although we surely would be in an unpredictable world after several years of renewed Trump rule, there’s no apparent way he can make the New York convictions disappear—New York law is New York law, and the president has no formal power over it—meaning that probation and all it entails would be waiting for him at the end of his presidency.

Trump and his supporters look at the convictions as freakish and partisan, and suppose that they can be undone, perhaps by the Supreme Court, which both Trump and Speaker Mike Johnson are asking to step in. But the supposition is fanciful. The convictions are indelible, and their consequences will be enduring. The odds of Trump’s walking away and again being a fully free man are remote.

Yes.

...but hey, do what you want...you will anyway.