Saturday, February 29, 2020

Let's see how long this lasts

The United States signed a historic peace deal with the Taliban in Doha, Qatar, Saturday that officials hope will mark the beginning of the end of America’s longest war. Under the deal, all U.S. troops would withdraw from Afghanistan in 14 months if the Taliban meet their commitments.

  Politico
If you have troops in a foreign country, shouldn't it be the government of the foreign country with whom you make deals to remove them?
The signing between Zalmay Khalilzad and Taliban officials will set the stage for the final withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan after 19 years of violence that has killed more than 3,500 Americans and coalition troops and tens of thousands of Afghans since the U.S. invasion following the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001.

[...]

Secretary of Defense Mark Esper traveled to Kabul on Saturday to appear beside Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg for a joint declaration.

“Thanks to President Trump’s leadership, we are finally making substantial progress toward ending our nation’s longest war,” Esper said. “Today’s release of the Joint Declaration between the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan and the United States marks a pivotal moment in the peace process.”

[...]

The U.S. withdrawal hinges on the Taliban’s fulfillment of major commitments that have hobbled peace agreements in the past, including breaking with al Qaeda, the Islamic State and other terrorist groups, and maintaining the reduction in violence seen over the last week, Esper said. It is also dependent on difficult negotiations between the Taliban and the Afghan government over power-sharing and a lasting cease-fire.
That's a lot of dependencies.
Esper stressed that the withdrawal is “conditions-based.”

“However, should the Taliban fail to honor their commitments, they will forfeit their chance to sit with fellow Afghans and deliberate on the future of their country,” Esper said. “Moreover, the United States would not hesitate to nullify the agreement.”
Of that, there can be no doubt. It's the one sure thing in the deal.
Senior officials in the military and intelligence communities are concerned that the Taliban will not hold up its end of the deal. Many fear the administration “is putting too much stock in the promises of the Taliban and they will simply sign anything to get us to leave,” one former Trump administration official told POLITICO.
Okay, two things.

Good luck, everybody.

...but hey, do what you want...you will anyway.

UPDATE:  3/2    Uh-oh.  "Snag".

UPDATE:  3/10   Looks like a failed deal.

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