Thursday, January 3, 2013

The Economy's Cassandra Speaks Again

Note: If you watch the video linked in this article, you are offered a free copy of the re-released and updated book Aftershock. I watched the video - it's 30 minutes and you can't pause, fast-forward or reverse it. It's basically a big advertisement, but the author is the guy who predicted the meltdown that no one else seemed to see, so it probably bears paying attention to.

The "free" book (courtesy of Newsmax) comes with a package deal, so that the least you can get it for is $47.00. It will sell for $28.00 in bookstores and Amazon, but those copies will not have a final chapter that's offered in this deal. The final chapter is one which they say the publisher did not want to include because it would cause panic or chaos. It's also the one that gives specific advice, if I understood them correctly. At the end of this post, I'll outline the author's advice for financial security given in the video for what he sees as the second collapse coming up shortly, but it will be without comment, explanation or caveat, all of which are in the book.  Actually, the interview/advertisement is interesting, if highly unspontaneous, should you have the thirty minutes.

Despite the 6.5% stock market rally over the last three months, a handful of billionaires are quietly dumping their American stocks . . . and fast.

Warren Buffett, who has been a cheerleader for U.S. stocks for quite some time, is dumping shares at an alarming rate.

[...]

In the latest filing for Buffett’s holding company Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett has been drastically reducing his exposure to stocks that depend on consumer purchasing habits.

[...]

With 70% of the U.S. economy dependent on consumer spending, Buffett’s apparent lack of faith in these companies’ future prospects is worrisome.

Unfortunately Buffett isn’t alone.

Fellow billionaire John Paulson, who made a fortune betting on the subprime mortgage meltdown, is clearing out of U.S. stocks too.

[...]

[B]illionaire George Soros recently sold nearly all of his bank stocks, including shares of JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Goldman Sachs. Between the three banks, Soros sold more than a million shares.

So why are these billionaires dumping their shares of U.S. companies?

[...]

It’s very likely that these professional investors are aware of specific research that points toward a massive market correction, as much as 90%.

[...]

In 2006, Wiedemer and a team of economists accurately predicted the collapse of the U.S. housing market, equity markets, and consumer spending that almost sank the United States.

[...]

Wiedemer calmly laid out a clear explanation of why a large drop of some sort is a virtual certainty.

It starts with the reckless strategy of the Federal Reserve to print a massive amount of money out of thin air in an attempt to stimulate the economy.

“These funds haven’t made it into the markets and the economy yet. But it is a mathematical certainty that once the dam breaks, and this money passes through the reserves and hits the markets, inflation will surge,” said Wiedemer.

“Once you hit 10% inflation, 10-year Treasury bonds lose about half their value. And by 20%, any value is all but gone. Interest rates will increase dramatically at this point, and that will cause real estate values to collapse. And the stock market will collapse as a consequence of these other problems.”

[...]

And this is where Wiedemer explains why Buffett, Paulson, and Soros could be dumping U.S. stocks:

“Companies will be spending more money on borrowing costs than business expansion costs. That means lower profit margins, lower dividends, and less hiring. Plus, more layoffs.”

No investors, let alone billionaires, will want to own stocks with falling profit margins and shrinking dividends. So if that’s why Buffett, Paulson, and Soros are dumping stocks, they have decided to cash out early and leave Main Street investors holding the bag.

[...]

But Main Street investors don’t have to see their investment and retirement accounts decimated for the second time in five years. Wiedemer’s video interview also contains a comprehensive blueprint for economic survival that’s really commanding global attention.

[...]

Editor’s Note: For a limited time, Newsmax is showing the Wiedemer interview and supplying viewers with copies of the new, updated Aftershock book including the final, unpublished chapter. Go here to view it now.

  Money News


Here are Wiedemer's recommendations:
  • Don't invest in real estate
  • Sell your home and rent
  • Refinance to fixed rate mortgage if you currently have an adjustable rate
  • Pay the minimum on your fixed rate mortgage
  • Pay off your car loan
  • Pay off your credit card loans
  • Take out a lump sum payment if you have whole life insurance and use that money elsewhere
  • Change your whole life isurance to term life
  • Look into estate planning and give gifts to children and grandchildren now
  • Relatively safe investments
    • Gold and other precious metals (for a decade or so, and then the gold bubble will burst)
    • Short-term bonds (do NOT buy long term bonds)
    • Foreign currency such as Canadian, Swiss, Euro, Nordic and UDN
    • US commodities
  • Expect the retirement age to increase (up to 73) 
    • Relatively safe jobs will be in the "necessity" sector (eg. health, education, government service)
  • Expect your tax rate to increase after the tax increase on the wealthiest proves to be insufficient
He says the worst case scenario for the upcoming crash is 50% unemployment and three years of 100% inflation, with a second housing meltdown.  He also says that we will still be better off than many other countries and doesn't expect any rioting, because no one is going to starve.  I don't know - I don't think I want to see 50% unemployment.  And, he also says we will eventually recover.  That's nice.  Eh?

Cheers, everybody.

PS:  Here's the direct link to the "free" book offer. 

Where's Hugo?

Venezuela's opposition demanded that the government reveal specifics of President Hugo Chavez's condition, criticising secrecy surrounding the ailing leader's health more than three weeks after his cancer surgery in Cuba.

Opposition coalition leader Ramon Guillermo Aveledo said at a news conference on Thursday that the information provided by government officials "continues to be insufficient".

Chavez has not been seen or heard from since the December 11 operation, and Vice President Nicolas Maduro on Tuesday said the president's condition remained "delicate" due to complications from a respiratory infection.

  alJazeera

Oh, it's more than “delicate” if they haven't heard from him. He's comatose or dead if they haven't heard from him. This is Hugo Chavez we're talking about.

If Chavez can't take office on [January 10 - beginning of the new term for which he was just re-elected], Aveledo said the constitution is clear that the National Assembly president should then take over temporarily until a new election is held.

The Venezuelan Constitution says that if Chavez dies or is unable to continue in office, a new election should be held within 30 days.

Tom Toles



...but hey, do what you want...you will anyway.

Wednesday, January 2, 2013

Treat



Sorry I Missed It

As If It Might Not Have Been Done

The US House of Representatives has passed the "fiscal cliff" bill, ending a months-long dispute over the measure that averts tax hikes and spending cuts.

The bill's passage on a 257-167 vote in the House of Representatives on Tuesday evening sealed a hard-won political triumph for the president less than two months after he secured re-election while calling for higher taxes on the wealthy.

  alJazeera

Of course, to get elected, he was calling for tax increases for those making over $250,000.  And the bill he'll sign is for over $400,000.

...but hey, do what you want...you will anyway.

UPDATE:

This whole puppet show was the result of a jerry-rigged burlesque of the legislative process that was devised a year ago because the House had been rendered dysfunctional by a claque of feral children. This whole puppet show likely will be replayed -- with even more spectacular special effects! -- in March when we deal with Fiscal Cliff 2: Sequester Boogaloo because of jerry-rigged burlesques that are part of this new deal of which everyone is so very proud.

[...]

I don't trust either side to develop a big, bold, balanced plan that doesn't pretty much hose most of the country because, in too many cases, their constituencies are no longer most of the people in the country. (How many times have you heard the current deal praised because The Markets were happy and how many times have you heard it praised because it extended unemployment benefits for a niggling 12 months? Thought so.)

[...]

This was a deal cobbled together by the vice-president and the minority leader of the Senate and passed by a Republican House with more Democratic votes than Republican votes. This leaves the government still in a weird, suspended place, creating tiny mechanisms within itself on the fly just to keep running, and then newer tiny mechanisms on the fly to keep the previous tiny mechanisms running. Sooner or later, you can't improvise your way out of your basic problems, which is that one of your two political parties continues to have a kind of prion disease eating away at its brain. This deal last night did not extinguish the nihilistic streak in the Republican party, nor its delight in legislative vandalism.

[...]

Last night, at literally the 11th hour of the first day of 2013, the House Of Representatives condescended to do a little part of its job. To borrow a phrase from Chris Rock, what do they want? A cookie?

And then, after everybody stopped watching, the Republicans adjourned the House without voting on a bill that would have extended aid to the victims of superstorm Sandy. The last act of this glorious night of bipartisan compromise on the part of the House majority was to flip off people who are still picking through the rubble in the middle of winter.

  Charlie Pierce


FURTHER UPDATE:

Tuesday, January 1, 2013

Over We Go


DonkeyHotey

We Don't Need No Steenkeen' Bill of Rights

[The] Bill Of Rights closed out 2012 by having one of the worst weeks it's had in the two centuries of its existence. But the courtier press paid that little mind, possibly because selling out the Bill Of Rights was done on a "bipartisan" basis, and the denizens of the various Green Rooms would endorse cannibal murder if both parties agreed to subsidize it.

First came the revolting vote on the reauthorization of FISA. Time was, and not that long ago, that the whole idea of a secret court issuing secret warrants was enough to raise hackles all on its own.

[...]

This latest thing was to reauthorize the truly spooky FISA Amendments that were passed in 2008 when the president, in one of the actions he's taken that really was a naked sellout of his previously enunciated principles, joined with a Senate majority to immunize the telecommunications companies that had participated in the Bush Administration's lawlessness regarding wiretapping, as well as to authorize sweeping new wiretapping powers far beyond those against which the companies were being immunized. What the president did is not excused by the fact that he was running for president at the time. This wasn't a flip-flop he took because he wanted to be elected. This was a flip-flop he took because he wanted to do some things once he was elected.

[...]

This is the argument of a totalitarian. You can't know what we're doing to protect you, even if we're doing it to you, because then we can't protect you and you will be killed by bad people and it will be your own fault. Somewhere in East Germany, an elderly ex-bureaucrat is getting a thrill up his leg and doesn't know why.

[...]

Later, came the release of some FBI documents in which it seemed to indicate at least an unacceptable level of involvement by federal law enforcement in the crackdowns by local authorities on the various outposts of the Occupy movement.

[...]

Moreover, the documents also seem to indicate that the FBI was coordinating with the banks and the financial institutions as regards to the burgeoning Occupy movement.

[...]

There is no question that the coordination between federal and local law-enforcement has grown tighter over the past 11 years. Anyone who's been to a political convention since 2004 knows that. There are federal programs by which hayshaker police chiefs can get their hands on a ludicrous level of weaponry, and the federal government in general has played a significant role in the militarization of local police departments. It is hardly a conspiracy theory at this point to say that, if the local gentry wanted the local police to clear out the drum circles, then the feds would be more than happy to help out. The difference between local and federal law enforcement is passing thin right now.

[...]

Suppose some of the Occupy people who got their heads busted want to take the local police who did it into federal court. Wouldn't the involvement, at whatever level, of the FBI compromise the administration of justice in that case? (That's a real question. I don't know nearly enough law to answer it.) There's enough in those documents to warrant a serious congressional investigation. There's enough still left in the Bill Of Rights to demand one.

  Charlie Pierce

Yeah, put that on your wish list for Santa next Christmas, along with world peace.

...but hey, do what you want...you will anyway.

Sunday, December 30, 2012

This Is Your Country

[N]ew documents show that the violent crackdown on Occupy last fall – so mystifying at the time – was not just coordinated at the level of the FBI, the Department of Homeland Security, and local police. The crackdown, which involved, as you may recall, violent arrests, group disruption, canister missiles to the skulls of protesters, people held in handcuffs so tight they were injured, people held in bondage till they were forced to wet or soil themselves –was coordinated with the big banks themselves.

[...]

The documents, in short, show the cops and DHS working for and with banks to target, arrest, and politically disable peaceful American citizens.

The documents, released after long delay in the week between Christmas and New Year, show a nationwide meta-plot unfolding in city after city in an Orwellian world: six American universities are sites where campus police funneled information about students involved with OWS to the FBI, with the administrations' knowledge (p51); banks sat down with FBI officials to pool information about OWS protesters harvested by private security; plans to crush Occupy events, planned for a month down the road, were made by the FBI – and offered to the representatives of the same organizations that the protests would target; and even threats of the assassination of OWS leaders by sniper fire – by whom? Where? – now remain redacted and undisclosed to those American citizens in danger, contrary to standard FBI practice to inform the person concerned when there is a threat against a political leader (p61).

  UK Guardian

Here's a Surprise (sarcasm font wanted)


...but hey, do what you want...you will anyway.