Thursday, January 3, 2013

The Economy's Cassandra Speaks Again

Note: If you watch the video linked in this article, you are offered a free copy of the re-released and updated book Aftershock. I watched the video - it's 30 minutes and you can't pause, fast-forward or reverse it. It's basically a big advertisement, but the author is the guy who predicted the meltdown that no one else seemed to see, so it probably bears paying attention to.

The "free" book (courtesy of Newsmax) comes with a package deal, so that the least you can get it for is $47.00. It will sell for $28.00 in bookstores and Amazon, but those copies will not have a final chapter that's offered in this deal. The final chapter is one which they say the publisher did not want to include because it would cause panic or chaos. It's also the one that gives specific advice, if I understood them correctly. At the end of this post, I'll outline the author's advice for financial security given in the video for what he sees as the second collapse coming up shortly, but it will be without comment, explanation or caveat, all of which are in the book.  Actually, the interview/advertisement is interesting, if highly unspontaneous, should you have the thirty minutes.

Despite the 6.5% stock market rally over the last three months, a handful of billionaires are quietly dumping their American stocks . . . and fast.

Warren Buffett, who has been a cheerleader for U.S. stocks for quite some time, is dumping shares at an alarming rate.

[...]

In the latest filing for Buffett’s holding company Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett has been drastically reducing his exposure to stocks that depend on consumer purchasing habits.

[...]

With 70% of the U.S. economy dependent on consumer spending, Buffett’s apparent lack of faith in these companies’ future prospects is worrisome.

Unfortunately Buffett isn’t alone.

Fellow billionaire John Paulson, who made a fortune betting on the subprime mortgage meltdown, is clearing out of U.S. stocks too.

[...]

[B]illionaire George Soros recently sold nearly all of his bank stocks, including shares of JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Goldman Sachs. Between the three banks, Soros sold more than a million shares.

So why are these billionaires dumping their shares of U.S. companies?

[...]

It’s very likely that these professional investors are aware of specific research that points toward a massive market correction, as much as 90%.

[...]

In 2006, Wiedemer and a team of economists accurately predicted the collapse of the U.S. housing market, equity markets, and consumer spending that almost sank the United States.

[...]

Wiedemer calmly laid out a clear explanation of why a large drop of some sort is a virtual certainty.

It starts with the reckless strategy of the Federal Reserve to print a massive amount of money out of thin air in an attempt to stimulate the economy.

“These funds haven’t made it into the markets and the economy yet. But it is a mathematical certainty that once the dam breaks, and this money passes through the reserves and hits the markets, inflation will surge,” said Wiedemer.

“Once you hit 10% inflation, 10-year Treasury bonds lose about half their value. And by 20%, any value is all but gone. Interest rates will increase dramatically at this point, and that will cause real estate values to collapse. And the stock market will collapse as a consequence of these other problems.”

[...]

And this is where Wiedemer explains why Buffett, Paulson, and Soros could be dumping U.S. stocks:

“Companies will be spending more money on borrowing costs than business expansion costs. That means lower profit margins, lower dividends, and less hiring. Plus, more layoffs.”

No investors, let alone billionaires, will want to own stocks with falling profit margins and shrinking dividends. So if that’s why Buffett, Paulson, and Soros are dumping stocks, they have decided to cash out early and leave Main Street investors holding the bag.

[...]

But Main Street investors don’t have to see their investment and retirement accounts decimated for the second time in five years. Wiedemer’s video interview also contains a comprehensive blueprint for economic survival that’s really commanding global attention.

[...]

Editor’s Note: For a limited time, Newsmax is showing the Wiedemer interview and supplying viewers with copies of the new, updated Aftershock book including the final, unpublished chapter. Go here to view it now.

  Money News


Here are Wiedemer's recommendations:
  • Don't invest in real estate
  • Sell your home and rent
  • Refinance to fixed rate mortgage if you currently have an adjustable rate
  • Pay the minimum on your fixed rate mortgage
  • Pay off your car loan
  • Pay off your credit card loans
  • Take out a lump sum payment if you have whole life insurance and use that money elsewhere
  • Change your whole life isurance to term life
  • Look into estate planning and give gifts to children and grandchildren now
  • Relatively safe investments
    • Gold and other precious metals (for a decade or so, and then the gold bubble will burst)
    • Short-term bonds (do NOT buy long term bonds)
    • Foreign currency such as Canadian, Swiss, Euro, Nordic and UDN
    • US commodities
  • Expect the retirement age to increase (up to 73) 
    • Relatively safe jobs will be in the "necessity" sector (eg. health, education, government service)
  • Expect your tax rate to increase after the tax increase on the wealthiest proves to be insufficient
He says the worst case scenario for the upcoming crash is 50% unemployment and three years of 100% inflation, with a second housing meltdown.  He also says that we will still be better off than many other countries and doesn't expect any rioting, because no one is going to starve.  I don't know - I don't think I want to see 50% unemployment.  And, he also says we will eventually recover.  That's nice.  Eh?

Cheers, everybody.

PS:  Here's the direct link to the "free" book offer. 

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