Thursday, June 7, 2018

What's that about Canada?

I know Trump says he doesn't need to prepare for the Trump-Kim summit (which could be because he only plans on signing a treaty - any treaty - in an attempt to get a Nobel Prize), but maybe he should have a look at his own USDA map showing agriculture exports last year before he heads to the G7 summit.



Oh, and...such a great deal maker he is:
[T]he top U.S. aluminum industry consultant says the [aluminum] tariff has, so far, actually enriched Canadian aluminum producers.

That's because they responded to the announcement in March by factoring the tariff into their prices, and then essentially pocketed that 10 per cent surcharge during the two months that Canada enjoyed a tariff exemption.

Following Trump's announcement the base price of aluminum on the London Metals Exchange, which has been trending lazily downward, suddenly spiked from about 90 cents a pound to $1.20. It remains 15 per cent higher than it was, a bonanza for producers. It rose again on Thursday's news that allies' tariff exemptions would end.

"Trump wrote a cheque for $600 million to Canadian aluminum producers," said Jorge Vasquez of Harbor Aluminum in Austin, Tex., who has served as an adviser to both the U.S. International Trade Commission and the Canadian Trade Tribunal.

In effect, Trump's actions transferred more than half a billion dollars from the U.S. economy to Canada's since March.

  CBC
Good job, Jughead. And, well-played, Canada.
The economic folly of the aluminum tariff doesn't stop there.

Key to understanding the counterproductive nature of this move, say industry watchers, is the inherent Canadian advantage bestowed by its abundant hydroelectric resources.

Aluminum is made from bauxite, a raw material Canada has very little of (almost half of the world's reserves are in Guinea or Australia).

The other main input is electricity. Canada — especially Quebec — produces a lot of cheap hydro. The mighty rivers of Quebec are the foundation of Canada's aluminum industry.

U.S. electricity rates are much higher. The price differential for this critical input far outweighs the cost of a 10 per cent tariff.

That's why U.S. industry buys half of its aluminum from Canada — nearly four times as much as it buys from its own producers.

The 14 U.S. aluminum smelters are typically older, smaller, and less cost-efficient than their counterparts in Canada, not to mention the ones in China and Russia. More than half of them are either closed or operating well below capacity.

Just one Canadian smelter — Aluminerie Alouette Inc. in Sept-Iles, Que. — comes close to equalling the entire output of the U.S. aluminum industry.

[...]

"Tomorrow, they (U.S. buyers) still need that same metal. They're just going to pay more for it," [Jean Simard, president of the Aluminum Association of Canada] told CBC.

"The primary producers, the Alcoas, Rio Tintos and Alouettes who own the ten smelters that export about 90 per cent of their capacity to the U.S., are actively involved in totally integrated value chains in the automotive, aerospace and consumer goods industries in the US, so they will maintain their channels."

Simard said that the increase in metal prices will be passed on to American consumers through everything from cars to beer cans.
Such a deal. America first!

...but hey, do what you want...you will anyway.

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