Wednesday, January 5, 2022
Surprise: redistricting for 2022 doesn't seem to be the boon for the GOP it's been hyped to be
If anybody can change a gain into a loss, it's the Democrats.The surprising good news for Democrats: on the current trajectory, there will be a few more Biden-won districts after redistricting than there are now — producing a congressional map slightly less biased in the GOP's favor than the last decade's.
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A Cook Political Report with Amy Walter analysis finds that in the completed states, Biden would have carried 161 of 293 districts over Donald Trump in 2020, an uptick from 157 of 292 districts in those states under the current lines (nationwide, Biden carried 224 of 435 seats). And if Democrats were to aggressively gerrymander New York or courts strike down GOP-drawn maps in North Carolina and/or Ohio, the outlook would get even better for Democrats.
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As we've written all cycle, redistricting was never going to be the GOP bonanza depicted in some sky-is-falling narratives on the left. Yes, Republicans wield the authority to redraw 187 seats compared to 75 for Democrats. But that's less lopsided than in 2011, when Republicans had nearly a five-to-one advantage. And many GOP-controlled states are already gerrymandered, limiting Republicans' ability to wring them for additional gains.
In Texas, Republican mapmakers' main objective was to shore up their own vulnerable incumbents, not seize a lot more Democratic seats. Republicans passed on going nuclear in Indiana and Iowa, and for parochial reasons appear unlikely to dismantle remaining Democratic seats in Kansas, Kentucky and Missouri. In fact, so far Republicans have only gone on offense in Georgia, North Carolina and Ohio — all of which face court scrutiny.
Meanwhile, Democrats unabashedly gerrymandered Illinois, New Mexico and Oregon. They scored highly favorable maps from commissions in California and New Jersey, and to a lesser extent Michigan. Republicans' only mild commission "wins?" Arizona and Montana. And five states where the GOP had exclusive authority back in 2011 — Louisiana, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin — are now under split or commission control.
Cook Political Report
...but hey, do what you want...you will anyway.The bad news for Democrats: if President Biden's approval ratings are still mired in the low-to-mid 40s in November, that won't be enough to save their razor-thin House majority (currently 221 to 212 seats).
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House Democrats' math problem boils down to this: even though there will be more Biden-won seats than there are now, dozens will have only voted for him by narrow margins and will be very tenuous for Democrats if Biden's approval rating is still languishing below 45 percent.
It was inevitable, but FFS
No. They had plenty good reasons for impeaching that criminal. Read the Mueller report for the first impeachment, and pretty soon there'll be a definitive report on his efforts to undermine and overturn the 2020 election for the second impeachment."If we take the House, which I said is overwhelmingly likely, then I think we will see serious investigations of the Biden administration," the senator said on the latest episode of his podcast, "Verdict with Ted Cruz."
"I do think there's a chance of that," Cruz said while talking about the possibility of a Republican-majority House impeaching Biden. He added that the Democrats had "weaponized impeachment."
"They used it for partisan purposes to go after Trump because they disagreed with him. One of the real disadvantages of doing that is the more you weaponize it and turn it into a partisan cudgel, you know, what’s good for the goose is good for the gander," Cruz said.
May be? Are there multiple grounds or not? And I'm going to need to see some proof to back up that border claim.Cruz said that there are "multiple grounds to consider for impeachment" of Biden.
"Probably the most compelling is the utter lawlessness of President Biden's refusal to enforce the border. His decision to just defy federal immigration laws and allow 2 million people to come here unimpeded in direct contravention of his obligation under Article Two of the Constitution to take care that the laws be faithfully executed," he said.
"That is probably the strongest grounds right now for impeachment, but there may be others."
Now THAT is "weaponizing impeachment" for "partisan purposes.""I think there is a real risk that this turnabout will be fair play," Cruz continued.
...but hey, do what you want...you will anyway.
What's really going on?
Really? Then why are you fighting everything tooth and nail?And the country hasn't moved on...at least not the Republican half of the country. They won't let the country move on. They're still claiming Biden is an illegitimate president.Senate Republicans can now breathe easier on Jan. 6.
Former President Donald Trump’s announcement Tuesday evening that he would cancel a previously planned press conference is good news for Senate Republicans, who earlier in the day openly fretted that he would pull their party back into debating his false election claims.
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“It’s a free country and you’re entitled to say whatever you want to say subject to some limitations, but I think the country has moved on,” said Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas.). “I think that’s where we ought to focus our efforts, is on getting things done for the American people and not re-litigating issues that have already been decided.”
Politico
That makes zero sense as a reason to cancel that speech. What really made him do it?When asked about Trump's press conference, McConnell said Tuesday: "It'll be interesting to see what he has to say." And Sen. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.), the No. 4 GOP leader, said Tuesday he hadn’t given much thought to the press conference.
“He’s going to do what he’s going to do and … I think that most of us want to make sure that something like that never happens again,” said Senate Minority Whip John Thune (R-S.D.).
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House Republicans had taken a more friendly tack toward Trump. On Fox News on Monday night, Laura Ingraham asked Reps. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) and Jim Banks (R-Ind.) if it was "smart" for Trump to do a speech on Jan 6.
"I welcome it. President Trump has important things to say," Banks said. "I'm looking forward to hearing what President Trump has to say."
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In addition to talking about the 2020 election, Trump was also expected to decry the House select committee’s investigation into Jan. 6. In his statement announcing he was canceling the rally, Trump blamed the committee for his decision and said he would discuss “many of those important topics” at a rally in Arizona on Jan. 15.
“In light of the total bias and dishonesty of the January 6th Unselect Committee of Democrats, two failed Republicans, and the Fake News Media, I am canceling the January 6th Press Conference at Mar-a-Lago on Thursday,” Trump said, reiterating his false charges of widespread election fraud.
Something tells me this was part of a bargain for Trump to cancel:
Sunday, January 2, 2022
Banned
I think this is right. She wants to be the female Donald Trump.
Twitter suspended Ms. Greene’s account after she tweeted on Saturday, falsely, about “extremely high amounts of Covid vaccine deaths.” She included a misleading chart that pulled information from a government database of unverified raw data called the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System, or VAERS, a decades-old system that relies on self-reported cases from patients and health care providers.
Twitter said that Ms. Greene had a fifth “strike,” which meant that her account will not be restored. The company had issued her a fourth strike in August after she falsely posted that the vaccines were “failing.” Ms. Greene was given a third strike less than a month before that when she had tweeted that Covid-19 was not dangerous and that vaccines should not be mandated.
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Last year, Ms. Greene heavily promoted the false claim that the 2020 presidential election was stolen from Mr. Trump, tweeting in January that there was “MASS voter fraud on a scale that should terrify every American regardless of political party.”
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There is currently no evidence of widespread major side effects from the coronavirus vaccines. Last month, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Johnson & Johnson’s vaccine could trigger a rare blood clotting disorder now linked to dozens of cases and at least nine deaths in the United States in the past year. The agency recommended using other approved vaccines instead.
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Twitter has long banned users from sharing misinformation that could lead to harm. In rare cases, the company has permanently banned high-profile accounts, including the account of former President Donald J. Trump, over a risk of “further incitement of violence” after a mob of Trump loyalists stormed the U.S. Capitol last Jan. 6.
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Ms. Greene’s official Congressional account, @RepMTG, remains active because tweets from that account did not violate the service’s rules.
NYT
It might start now.
I guess it's too much to hope that this means some of the biggest liars and assholes from MAGAworld will leave Twitter.On the alternative social messaging platform Telegram, Ms. Greene said that Twitter “is an enemy to America and can’t handle the truth.”
...but hey, do what you want...you will anyway.
UPDATE:
Don't let the Twitter door hit you on your way out, Bigg Guy.
We need vaccines
Not in the US, it won't.[A]s the pandemic enters year three without signs of abatement, it's time to think about new strategies for containing the contagion.
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Indeed, the ideal vaccine cocktail may include injectable and intranasal components.
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The holy grail of herd immunity — the percentage of the population that would need to be immune to the virus through infection or vaccination — is a receding target. The already challenging estimate was thought early in the pandemic to be near 70 percent coverage. After the first variants, the estimate increased to near 80 percent. And with the more transmissible omicron variant, it is now estimated that, if it could be reached at all, it would require more than 9 out of every 10 to be vaccinated.
The most important factor in the emergence of variants is unvaccinated people within whom SARS-CoV-2 reproduces and evolves to even greater fitness for growth in humans.
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A shift to less invasive intranasal vaccines should result in improved compliance.
The Hill
That would help.[N]one of the intranasal vaccines in development are as perishable as the RNA vaccines. In short, intranasal vaccines should be less expensive to manufacture, transport and administer.
The longest US war (technically)
Official boilerplate.The United States and South Korea have “effectively” reached an agreement on a draft declaration that would formally end the Korean War, South Korea’s top diplomat said Wednesday.
An armistice was signed in July 1953 to end a war that began in 1950 when North Korean troops invaded South Korea. A formal peace treaty ending the war was never signed.
North Korea has been unresponsive to talks on formally ending the war, Yonhap noted.
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In September, North Korea’s Vice Foreign Minister Ri Thae Song said Pyongyang would not agree to an official declaration unless the U.S. stopped its “hostile policy” towards the nation.
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Asked about Chung’s comments, a State Department spokesperson said, “the United States remains committed to achieving lasting peace on the Korean Peninsula through dialogue and diplomacy with the DPRK,” referring to North Korea’s official name as the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea
“To this end, we will continue to seek engagement with the DPRK as part of a calibrated, practical approach in order to make tangible progress that increases the security of the United States, our allies, and our deployed forces,” the spokesperson added.
The Hill
Check the right hand column of this blog for some eye-opening information about the Korean War. It's under "No Gun Ri massacre".
...but hey, do what you want...you will anyway.
New Manhattan DA
Cue the racist MAGAhats.Democrat Alvin Bragg was sworn in as the first Black Manhattan district attorney on Saturday and will now oversee a case previously presided over by former Manhattan District Attorney Cyrus Vance Jr. (D) regarding former President Trump's business practices.
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Earlier this year, New York prosecutors charged the Trump Organization and its chief financial officer, Allen Weisselberg, with fraud and conspiracy, though both parties maintain they did not commit any wrongdoing. Weisselberg has already pleaded not guilty to those counts.
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In an interview with CNN in December, Bragg signaled that he would be engaged in and personally focused on the Trump case, telling reporter Kara Scannell that “this is obviously a consequential case, one that merits the attention of the DA personally.”
Bragg also said at the time that he would be keeping on attorneys Carey Dunne and Mark Pomerantz to continue their work in the investigation into the former president’s business practices.
The Hill
...but hey, do what you want...you will anyway.
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