Iowa poll

Too far away to feel certain, but encouraging nonetheless.  Happy to see Biden down to fourth.

A new Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows 20% of likely Democratic caucusgoers name Sanders as their first choice for president.

[...]

The poll of 701 likely Democratic caucusgoers was conducted Jan. 2-8 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.

  Des Moines Register

Which really puts all four of the top people essentially tied. Hopefully, this is a trend, though, and Joe will go lower. And, yeah, 701 people is not a lot.

The percentage of those who say their mind is made up about which candidate to support on caucus night has risen to 40% — up 10 percentage points from November. But that leaves 45% who say they could still be persuaded to support someone else and another 13% who have not picked a favorite candidate yet.

If that actually represents Iowa caucus goers, that's a lot.

Sanders' supporters are more likely than those who support the other leading candidates to say their minds are made up (59%), and they are “extremely” enthusiastic about their candidate (49%). Just 32% of Warren's supporters describe themselves as extremely enthusiastic, and 26% each for Biden and Buttigieg.

[...]

Sanders is holding on to many of those who caucused for him in 2016 while also growing support among young and first-time caucusgoers. Those are notoriously difficult groups to turn out on caucus night, [...] but Sanders has done it before and appears to be on track to do so again.

[...]

Buttigieg held a commanding lead in the Register's last Iowa Poll, in November, at 25% — 9 percentage points ahead of Warren, his closest competitor. But in the weeks since, he's faced more criticism over his record, his moderate policy positions and his inability to win over voters of color, nationally.

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The caucus process makes [...] second choices crucial. After a first vote on caucus night, candidates who don't receive at least 15% in a precinct get dropped from contention there. The people who initially backed a candidate who failed to earn 15% then get to vote again for a final time.