Tuesday, November 26, 2019

Perhaps the answer to the previous post's question

President Donald Trump has been working to defend himself against the ongoing impeachment inquiry by citing polling he says shows support for impeachment is on the decline. While some polling does in fact show a decrease in support for impeachment, it is not “dropping like a rock” as the president has claimed, nor have polls “turned very strongly against Impeachment.”

And it isn’t clear Trump is referencing numbers from any actual polls, like the data he cited Monday that he said shows support is “down into the 20’s in some Polls.”

  Vox
It's very clear to ME that he isn't.
In fact, polling suggests support for impeachment is holding fairly steady. It remains particularly strong among Democrats, with a mid-November Morning Consult poll finding 82 percent of Democrats supporting impeachment and a mid-November NPR/PBS Newshour/Marist poll finding 86 percent of Democrats in support. A FiveThirtyEight meta-analysis Monday finds an average of 80 percent of Democrats support impeachment.

[...]

[A]n October 8 Quinnipiac University poll that found 85 percent of Democrats wanted to see Trump impeached and removed from the White House.

[...]

The November Morning Consult poll found 11 percent of Republicans supporting impeachment; the NPR/PBS/Marist poll saw 7 percent saying the same. FiveThirtyEight finds the average of pro-impeachment Republican sentiment to be around 12 percent. In early October, Morning Consult 12 found percent of Republicans supported impeachment, NPR/PBS/Marist 6 percent, and FiveThirtyEight found about 14 percent.
So it would seem civilian Republicans are not ALL Trump bootlickers, unlike Congressional ones.
Overall, support seems to have slipped slightly; Morning Consult’s mid-November poll recorded it at 48 percent, NPR/PBS/Marist put it at 45 percent, and FiveThirtyEight’s analysis at 46 percent. Contrast this with the early October figures, when Morning Consult found 50 percent overall support for impeachment, NPR/PBS/Marist 49 percent, and FiveThirtyEight 48.8 percent.

Beyond slight declines in Democratic and Republican support, there has also been a decrease in support for impeachment among independent voters — something that the president has celebrated on Twitter, retweeting allies like Rep. Mark Meadows who have pointed out this trend.
And those, we're supposed to believe, are the ones that matter.
Meadows cited a November poll from Emerson College that found 34 percent of independents in support of impeachment, down 14 percentage points from the level of support registered in the college’s October poll.

This poll is something of an outlier, however. Other polls have revealed shifts in support more in line with the changes recorded among Democratic and Republican voters: NPR/PBS/Marist found a 6 percentage point decrease (47 to 41 percent) from October to November and Morning Consult a 4 percentage point decrease (44 to 40 percent).

What none of these polls show is support for impeachment in the 20s, as Trump has claimed.

[...]

Recent trends are not necessarily cause for alarm among Democratic leaders, particularly as it remains to be seen whether recent downturns last or are fleeting. Support for impeachment has fluctuated before, and it is important to note available polling was conducted toward the beginning and middle of public impeachment inquiry hearings, not following them.
And the reporting I'm seeing that seems to downplay public support for impeachment, as the CNN one above, are claiming that the hearings didn't change the numbers. I'll wager there are a lot of people who haven't even yet absorbed all the testimony.

I'd also like to remind everyone, impeachment hearings are not over. We only just got the reports about Nunes' involvement and Lev Parnas' desire to testify.  And Jerry Nadler's Judiciary Committee takes up the baton some time after Thanksgiving.

UPDATE:


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