Tuesday, May 21, 2019

Will Justin Amash run for President in 2020?

The libertarian-leaning tea party congressman said in January that the idea was “more on my radar now because everybody keeps asking about it.” He told the Lions of Liberty podcast, “I just think it’s important that we offer some alternative.”

And Amash’s motivations would go further than just Trump. He has decried the “two-party duopoly” in American politics — a pregnant statement from a man who ran for and serves in office as a Republican — and he has criticized his own tea party wing of the party for selling out its principles.

“It turns out a lot of them were not in favor of limiting the size of government, they were just opposed to the president at the time,” said Amash, who helped found the tea party-aligned House Freedom Caucus. “The tea party is largely gone. It was replaced with nationalism and protectionism and the general philosophy of the party now under Trump.”

  WaPo
It was co-opted by the GOP.
Amash has also departed from his party on some big issues, including Trump’s border wall national emergency, his travel ban and even Trump’s nomination of Brett M. Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court.
If you think my job is to support the president one hundred percent, then you don’t understand what it means to be a representative in Congress. My job is to support the Constitution one hundred percent and to represent all the people of my district by protecting their rights.

— Justin Amash (@justinamash) February 28, 2019
[...]

[T]he highest share the Libertarian Party has ever received in a presidential election is the 3 percent that Gary Johnson got in 2016. But the party that year had ballot access in all 50 states. Assuming it gets that again, Amash would have a real chance to expand upon Johnson’s vote share. And whatever you thought of Johnson’s policies, he was not that compelling a candidate; Amash, by contrast, is widely regarded as a smart and principled lawmaker. It’s not difficult to see him doing better than Johnson.

[...]

Even if Amash didn’t take much of the vote nationwide, if he overperformed in his home state [of Michigan], he could be depriving Trump of its 16 electoral votes, which would be a significant strike against Trump winning reelection. And it’s not difficult to see Amash’s more tea-party-oriented politics appealing to the limited number of disaffected Republicans in other states as well. Trump has pretty unified support in today’s GOP, but there are also signs that it’s somewhat soft. And given that as much as 56 percent of the country says they won’t vote for Trump, Trump cannot afford to have many would-be Republican voters peeled off by a third-party candidate.
Which is why His Lardship is calling Amash a loser. He'll get exponentially worse if Amash runs.
Amash has to know he would be in for some hard times if he ran, given that Republicans would instantly view him as a potential spoiler. And his comments thus far do not suggest someone who is strongly leaning toward running.

But he’s also the kind of politician who seems willing to put himself on the line to make a point about principles.
Even if he decides to forgo the primary battle, an outcast Amash could still stick a wrench in the spokes. He could run for president as an independent and campaign only in Michigan. Trump beat Clinton there in 2016 by a mere 10,704 votes out of more than 4.5 million cast.

  The Bulwark
...but hey, do what you want...you will anyway.

No comments: