Speculating in the Mueller probe

The ratio of known facts to speculation in the special prosecutor's investigation is only slightly less than that of winning numbers to lottery tickets bought. But, I'll play along anyway in some cases in both those ventures.

Former Trump campaign aide Rick Gates has quietly added a prominent white-collar attorney, Tom Green, to his defense team, signaling that Gates' approach to his not-guilty plea could be changing behind the scenes.

  CNN

Changing, or they've just gotten far enough into their strategy and close enough to trial that they decided they need more help.

Green, a well-known Washington defense lawyer, was seen at special counsel Robert Mueller's office twice last week. CNN is told by a source familiar with the matter that Green has joined Gates' team.

Green isn't listed in the court record as a lawyer in the case and works for a large law firm separate from Gates' primary lawyers.

So, he may not even be working for Gates' team.  We've already taken one event and built a story around it that might not be true.  Those "familiar with the matter" sources are sometimes not as familiar as they think they are. But let's stipulate they're right.

Green's involvement suggests that there is an ongoing negotiation between the defendant's team and the prosecutors. At this stage, with Gates' charges filed and bail set, talks could concern the charges and Gates' plea.

And, if he is a new addition to the team, he could be getting up to snuff directly with Mueller's office.  Also, since when did defense attorneys quit talking to prosecutors at some arbitrary point before a trial?  "Ongoing negotiations" would surely be common.  Plea bargains happen every day, and those have to be negotiated with the prosecutors.

Gates pleaded not guilty in October to eight charges of money laundering and failing to register foreign lobbying and other business. His longtime business partner, former Trump campaign chair Paul Manafort, pleaded not guilty to nine counts in the same case as Gates.

For months, court-watchers -- including Gates' own attorneys -- have anticipated additional charges against the defendants.  Superseding indictments, which would add or replace charges against both Gates and Manafort, have been prepared, according to a source close to the investigation. No additional charges have been filed so far. When there is a delay in filing charges after they've been prepared, it can indicate that negotiations of some nature are ongoing.

Or, it could indicate that nothing's happening, and those charges are out there for a reminder to the parties that they can be dropped at any time.  Once prepared in the beginning, they would hardly be trashed before the trial.

Manafort, like Gates, has pleaded not guilty in the case, yet prosecutors and his defense attorneys have squabbled throughout Manafort's recent court action, more so than Gates' lawyers.

I don't think that tells us anything. Different lawyers, different approaches. Different other factors that could be involved: amount of liability, connections to other people/events and what they have to lose, for instance.

The judge overseeing the case finished a drawn-out process of changing Gates' bail condition last week. The federal prosecutors didn't stand in the way of Gates being released from house arrest, even after they and the judge found that his assets could barely back his $5 million bail.

If I'm not mistaken, he still has an ankle bracelet, though.

At a hearing last week, the judge also acknowledged that the deadlines for legal work before a trial could be different for Gates and Manafort.

"We are the least prepared of anyone here and we want to do a good job and we need that time to be able to do it," Gates' lawyer Walter Mack told the judge as they discussed filing deadlines. A schedule hasn't been finalized.

Should a deal be worked out, it would mean Mueller has the cooperation of another Trump campaign insider.

I think we're now in danger of breaking a leg jumping that far to a conclusion.

Of course, it could be that Gates will be - or is - cooperating. I'm just not reading these tea leaves in the same decisive way CNN is.

...but hey, do what you want...you will anyway.