Thursday, September 29, 2022

Putin's plan to get out of the ill-fated Ukrainian invasion

Russia confirmed on Thursday it will formally annex parts of Ukraine where occupied areas held Kremlin-orchestrated "referendums" on living under Moscow's rule that the Ukrainian government and the West denounced as illegal and rigged. Russian President Vladimir Putin will attend a ceremony on Friday in the Kremlin when four regions of Ukraine will be officially folded into Russia, spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters.

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Armed troops had gone door-to-door with election officials to collect ballots in five days of voting. The suspiciously high margins in favor were characterized as a land grab by an increasingly cornered Russian leadership after embarrassing military losses in Ukraine.

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The United States and its Western allies have sharply condemned the votes as "sham referenda" and vowed never to recognize their results.

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The official annexation was widely expected following the votes that wrapped up on Tuesday in the areas under Russian occupation in Ukraine and after Moscow claimed residents overwhelmingly supported for their areas to formally become part of Russia.

  CBS
But this doesn't mean the war is over.
Ukraine too has dismissed the referendums as illegitimate, saying it has every right to retake the territories, a position that has won support from Washington.

[...]

After a counteroffensive by Ukraine this month dealt Moscow's forces heavy battlefield setbacks, Russia said it would call up 300,000 reservists to join the fight. It also warned it could resort to nuclear weapons if its territory is attacked — and many have viewed the looming annexations as a way for Putin to create the pretext of exactly such a direct attack on Russia.
I wouldn't be quick to assume he'd actually do it.
British military intelligence report claimed the number of Russian military-age men fleeing the country likely exceeds the number of forces Moscow used to initially invade Ukraine in February.

"The better off and well educated are over-represented amongst those attempting to leave Russia," the British said. "When combined with those reservists who are being mobilized, the domestic economic impact of reduced availability of labor and the acceleration of 'brain drain' is likely to become increasingly significant."

That partial mobilization is deeply unpopular in some areas, however, triggering protests, scattered violence, and Russians fleeing the country by the tens of thousands. Miles-long lines formed at some borders and Moscow also reportedly set up draft offices at borders to intercept some of those trying to leave.
UPDATE:


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