Sunday, January 12, 2020

More on the attempted assassination of Abdul Reza Shahlai

The attempt to take out Shahlai simultaneously with Soleimani suggests that this wasn’t an isolated, defensive operation but may have been part of a broader attack on the Quds Force.

Shahlai is operating in Yemen, meaning the conflict he is waging at the moment is less against the United States than against Saudi Arabia, which is engaged in a war in Yemen against Iran-backed rebels with our support.

In recent statements, administration officials have noted Shahlai’s role in a 2007 attack on American soldiers in Iraq, his support of Houthi rebels in Yemen and his “long history of involvement in attacks targeting the U.S. and our allies."

But if someone like Shahlai was planning to attack American forces — let’s say “imminently” — Yemen wouldn’t be the place to do it. Which suggests this may have been part of a broader operation to kill Iranian military leaders.

  WaPo
Further reason to discount all of the administration's excuses for assassinating Soleimani, except for retaliation.
“If the objective was to weaken the Quds Force irrespective of any intelligence about imminent attacks on Americans, then where does that end?” [Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-N.J.)] said. “And is it over?”
No. The move for regime change in Iran covers decades of American foreign policy. It might stop - or be halted temporarily - if Bernie Sanders were to be elected in November, but it certainly won't if Joe Biden, or Amy Klobuchar, or Pete Buttigieg - and possibly even Elizabeth Warren - is.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has been invited to testify next week to the Foreign Affairs Committee.

But Engel told us that Pompeo has not said whether he’ll appear. “Right now it looks like he’s not coming,” [Rep. Eliot L. Engel (D-N.Y.), the chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee,] told us. “We haven’t heard from him.”
Congress has weakened itself nearly out of the picture.
Pompeo has also been struggling to clean up after Trump’s public statements. In extemporaneous remarks Thursday, Trump said Soleimani was about to blow up the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad — the first time it had been suggested by anyone.

That led Pompeo to tell reporters on Friday: “Soleimani was actively planning new attacks, and he was looking very seriously at our embassies and not just the embassy in Baghdad.”
And then Trump claimed ("I can reveal...") it was four embassies.
Numerous Democratic senators are now saying that the threat to embassies was not part of the briefing given to members of Congress on Wednesday.

Which raises the possibility that it’s not actually true, but once the president said it, his national security team felt obligated to back him up.
Wouldn't be the first time.
It’s hard to imagine that four GOP senators — which is all the war powers measure would need to pass — would not be willing to assert congressional authority, given this latest news and all it indicates about how much we do not know about what the administration is secretly up to.
Oh, it's not hard to imagine at all.

UPDATE:


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