Wednesday, May 9, 2018

Another brilliant assessment by the Trump team

Specifically that idiot at Treasury this time.
Crude oil prices rose to three-and-a-half-year highs following the news that the Trump administration revoked the nuclear deal with Iran.

[...]

The rise came after the treasury secretary, Steven Mnuchin, told reporters he did not expect a major oil price hikes because other countries would increase output to offset such losses.

  Guardian
Why would they?  They've got Trump right where they want him.
Although Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action was not a surprise, reinstating all US nuclear-related sanctions was more than expected, said Barclays analysts in a research note.

[...]

The reimposition of US sanctions will be phased in over the next 90-180 days to give companies time to wind down operations.

[...]

Melek said he sees WTI and Brent crude oil prices not going much higher than $72 and $78, respectively, saying the price rise this week reflects a temporary risk premium rather than actual supply shortages.

[...]

Bart Melek, global head of commodity strategy at TD Securities, said this announcement comes at a time where there are increased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and global crude oil inventories are normalizing after being in a supply glut for the past few years. In the US inventory levels are now below the five-year average.
A temporary risk premium.
There is a lot of uncertainty in the market which stems from the White House itself, said Eric Armitage, chief investment officer of East Alpha, a hedge fund specializing in energy. He noted tweets from Trump a few weeks ago complaining oil prices were too high.
So he thought the way to fix that would be to renege on the JCPOA.

Wait until Iran and Israel go full tilt.
Melek said if talks break down in the coming weeks and months or there is more aggressive rhetoric, which is entirely possible, prices could potentially spike higher. But he said market reactions like that are usually temporary.

“You would really need something material on the ground that would stop flows of oil to get into the triple digits,” Melek said.
How about another proxy war in Middle East?

Trumpettes now have another thing to sit in a corner and think about: higher gas prices.

Not to trivialize the nuclear weapons aspect of this fool's action, but I'm getting tired of all this winning.

...but hey, do what you want...you will anyway.

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