Wednesday, December 11, 2019

Don't anybody actually LOOK at any polls


Well, the Firehouse poll has a C/D rating as polling organizations go on 538.  And that was for Wisconsin, not all states.  In fact, he's losing to every Democratic candidate in many states.  He could have actually found a poller with a better rating that has him ahead, but not by as much.  And, frankly, this is most likely a typical case where his staff present him with only the best news articles so as not to make him dangerously angry.

Have a look at polls from organizations that have at least a B rating, for all states taken together:






Now a look at pollers with at least an A rating:





And, here's an A-rated poller that Trump could have referred to:



Yeah, very interesting.  Booker should run with this.

Anyway, polls aren't helpful to anybody but campaign directors.  And then with caveats.  But, if you're interested in polls, 538 has a great page where you can filter by poll subject, state, and poller rating.  Here's how they determine ratings.

Of course, with our screwed up electoral system, certain states matter more than others, and if Trump is up in those states, that's not good.

Also, now apparently Trump's not only doing mini-press conferences next to a helicopter where you can't hear the questions, he's doing them in the rain in the dark where you can't see him.  Actually I prefer that.

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