Tuesday, January 29, 2019

His own DNI says his Iran policy is failing

Top US intelligence officials, in a new "Worldwide Threat Assessment" to Congress, offered several judgments on Iran that seem to cast doubt on the effectiveness of the Donald Trump administration’s Iran policy.

Iranian hard-liners could be empowered, sporadic unrest is uncoordinated, and Iran’s regional behavior has not moderated and may even become more aggressive in the face of perceived increased US/Saudi/Israeli hostility and US-led economic pressure, the 42-page annual "Worldwide Threat Assessment," prepared by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, said.

[...]

Trump’s withdrawal from the nuclear deal last year and reimposition of harsh sanctions on Iran’s energy and banking sectors has not caused Iran to moderate its support for proxy groups in the region, or curtail its ballistic missile program, the largest in the Middle East, according to the new US assessment. Nor has it produced the kind of seismic unrest that would potentially threaten the regime’s survival and force it back to the negotiating table, the US intelligence community assesses.

[...]

Iran continues for now to abide by the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), that Trump withdrew from last year, Director of National Intelligence Daniel Coats told the Senate Intelligence panel today. But Iran is having internal debates if it should resume elements of its program if it does not receive the economic benefits world powers agreed to in exchange for its rollback of its nuclear program, US intelligence officials warned.

  Al Monitor
Which is not good news, no matter how you slice it. Creating a real national emergency, and perhaps a global one, is a real danger with Trump and Bolton in charge of US foreign policy.

...but hey, do what you want...you will anyway.

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