It depends on your point of view

Yo, Matt.  That's starting to look good to me.

About a dozen incumbent Democrats and a half-dozen incoming Democrats are preparing a letter pledging to not support Pelosi on the House floor for speaker. The members also intend to note another contingent of Democrats who privately say they won’t support the longtime California Democrat but won’t sign the letter, according to Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Ohio), one of the ringleaders of the effort to block Pelosi.

[...]

[T]he group is trying to get more than 20 members before releasing [the letter]. Currently on the letter, though not certain to stay on it, are:

- Tim Ryan (D-Ohio)
- Seth Moulton (D-Mass.)
- Kathleen Rice (D-N.Y.)
- Ed Perlmutter (D-Colo.)
- Kurt Schrader (D-Ore.)
- Filemon Vela Jr. (D-Texas)
- Marcia Fudge (D-Ohio)
- Bill Foster (D-Ill.)
- Brian Higgins (D-N.Y.)
- Stephen Lynch (D-Mass.)
- Linda Sanchez (D-Calif.)
- Jim Cooper (D-Tenn.)
- Jeff Van Drew (D-N.J.)
- Joe Cunningham (D-S.C.)
- Max Rose (D-N.Y.)
- Anthony Brindisi (D-N.Y.)
- Ben McAdams (D-Utah)

There is another contingent of Democrats ― including Conor Lamb (D-Pa.), Dan Lipinksi (D-Ill.), Ron Kind (D-Wis.), Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.), Jason Crow (D-Colo.), Haley Stevens (D-Mich.), Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.), Mikie Sherrill (D-N.J.) and Andy Kim (D-N.J.) ― who are seen as likely to vote against Pelosi, but who also are hesitant to sign the letter.

[...]

But Pelosi also has a number of ways she could wrangle the speaker’s gavel even if a dozen and a half members pledge to oppose her. For one, Democrats could make a new rule binding every member to vote for the Democratic nominee.

  HuffPo

And it would be just like them, but that would be a terrible start to a new Congress. Strong-arming their own party.

The way the speaker election works is that a candidate first gets the nomination behind closed doors during the Democratic Caucus meeting. That is the easiest hurdle to clear. A candidate only needs a majority of their party for the speaker nomination, and Pelosi has that part essentially locked up.

The hard part is the floor vote, when a candidate needs a majority of the House: 218 of the 435 members. That number includes Republicans. While we don’t know the exact breakdown of the House yet, it’s likely to be around 234 Democrats and 191 Republicans ― give or take a couple of members on both sides. If the number is 234 Democrats, Pelosi can lose only 16 Democrats if every member votes.

[...]

Pelosi’s allies all readily point out that “you can’t beat somebody with nobody,” but Pelosi’s opponents are testing that idea. In fact, they seem to think their movement is strengthened without a clear alternative.

The idea is that, once Pelosi knows she can’t win, she will step aside and there would be a new race for the speaker position.

She doesn't seem like the type to step aside.

Pelosi says she is confident she can survive.

Exiting a caucus meeting this morning, Pelosi said she could stop and take questions.

“I’m a busy person,” she said. “I will be speaker of the House no matter what Seth Moulton says.”

[...]

Members believe ― for good reason ― that there would be a rush of candidates for the speaker job if Pelosi stepped down, potentially including Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (D-Md.), Assistant Minority Leader Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.), Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Ben Ray Lujan (D-N.M.), Barbara Lee (D-Calif.) and Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.).

If I had a vote, it would be for Barbara Lee. She's already proven herself to be the only Democrat in Congress (until this year's new members who haven't had a chance to prove themselves) brave enough to do the right thing, even under extreme pressure. Lee is the only member of Congress, either party, to vote against invading Iraq.

Here's her speech: