The $64,000 question

Why hasn’t the White House pulled the plug already? As a matter of both substance and politics, isn’t it utterly crazy that they haven’t?

First, substance: If you’re a Republican, why do you want Kavanaugh on the court? It isn’t because among all the Republican lawyers in America only he is uniquely brilliant enough to produce the outcomes conservatives want. There are dozens of potential nominees who could overturn Roe v. Wade, complete the obliteration of collective bargaining, eviscerate the government’s ability to protect the environment, and whatever else is on the right’s legal agenda. Pick someone else from the White House’s list of other potential nominees, and the legal outcomes would almost surely be exactly the same.

[...]

One answer is that Republicans have convinced themselves not only that Kavanaugh is the real victim here, but also that the accusations against him constitute one of the greatest injustices in the history of mankind. A line must be drawn, a stand must be made, for the sake of all that is right and good in the world — and especially so the damn liberals won’t win. When you hate your opponents as much as Republicans hate Democrats, giving those opponents what they want today — even if it’s so you can win a more significant victory tomorrow — is utterly intolerable.

  WaPo

True - and maybe more weighty, they're incensed that women might have some power in the situation.

Another is that Republicans don’t actually believe that pushing Kavanaugh gently to the side is the best thing for them politically. “He’s too big to fail now,” a source close to the confirmation process told Axios, and the White House has no backup plan because they all assume that there would be a mass revolt of the GOP base if that happened. Those voters would stay home, increasing the changes of a wave election that enables Democrats to take the House and perhaps the Senate.

It’s possible. But here’s what else we know: The key variable in the 2018 election isn’t how motivated Republican voters are. It’s how motivated Democratic-leaning voters are, especially women.

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A new Quinnipiac poll tells this story quite well. It finds that American voters lean against confirming Kavanaugh and lean toward believing Ford over him. But there’s more. We’ve obtained additional numbers from Quinnipiac, and they show college-educated white women in opposition to Kavanaugh by truly overwhelming margins. [...] [V]oters oppose confirming Kavanaugh by 48-42. But women oppose Kavanaugh by 55-37, and college educated white women oppose him by 58-34.

Meanwhile, overall voters believe Ford over Kavanaugh by 48 to 41. But women believe her over him by 55 to 35, and college-educated white women believe her by 61 to 31.

It really should be much more overwhelming. With that many women backing the male supremacy model, it's going to take forever to move this country.

[V]oters disapprove of Trump’s handling of the nomination by 49 to 42. But women disapprove of it by 54 to 36, and college-educated white women are once again driving this, disapproving by 58 to 35.

[...]

[M]en think Kavanaugh has been treated unfairly by 52 to 41. A majority of men say Kavanaugh has been the victim of a smear campaign, and a majority of women say he has not. One imagines that gender-based recriminations will persist after this is all over, right into Election Day, and well beyond.

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Or look at this Pew poll. The number of Republican voters who say they’re more enthusiastic than usual about voting is 59 percent. Which is much like it was in previous wave years for the GOP. What’s different this year is Democratic voters. In 2010, 42 percent said they were more enthusiastic than usual; in 2014, it was 36 percent. But this year it’s 67 percent, a jump of more than 30 points from the last midterm.

You know how I feel about polls, but I hope they're right.

It’s the rise in Democratic enthusiasm, not a falloff in Republican enthusiasm, that is the GOP’s problem this year.

In other words, the GOP is shooting itself in the foot by standing by Kavanaugh.

It’s the rise in Democratic enthusiasm, not a falloff in Republican enthusiasm, that is the GOP’s problem this year.

Sounds like a win now versus a win soon for the Democrats.

...but hey, do what you want...you will anyway.