You Haven't Seen the Last of Pervez Musharraf

Pakistan's president [Asif Ali Zardari, widower of assassinated former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto] has returned to his nation's capital after a private [one day] trip to Dubai, officials said Friday, amid what appears to be growing tension surrounding his hold on power.

[...]

A presidential spokesman said Asif Ali Zardari had traveled to the United Arab Emirates for a wedding, though a day before his aides said he was there for a routine medical check up, according to Naveed Chaudhary.

  CNN

So we really don’t know why he was there. But we know that he went there for a couple of weeks in December as well (it turns out he has a home in Dubai), and we know that ex-President Musharraf resides in Dubai since his ouster and being threatened with impeachment in Pakistan.

The military set a harsher tone on Wednesday, warning of "grievous consequences" after Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani accused the army and spy chiefs of violating the constitution in what has become known as "memogate".

The Supreme Court has also threatened the government with contempt proceedings that could lead to the fall of senior officials including the prime minister if it does not take action on long-standing corruption cases against Zardari.

[...]

Tension has risen between the civilian government and the military, which has ruled Pakistan for more than half its 64-year history, since a memo emerged last October purportedly [from diplomat as Husain Haqqani, a Zardari ally who was then Pakistan's ambassador in Washington,] seeking U.S. help to stave off a military coup.

Deepening the crisis, Gilani later sacked the country's top military bureaucrat for unspecified "gross misconduct and illegal action".

  UK Guardian

Former Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf has said he will return to the country to contest elections, despite an announcement by prosecutors that he will be arrested for (not preventing) the killing of former premier Benazir Bhutto upon arrival.

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General Musharraf, who led Pakistan between 1999 – 2008, said he would return late this month.

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The key to understanding Musharraf’s desire to return despite the odds is the man’s belief that he alone can "save" Pakistan, says columnist Ayaz Amir. During his speech to supporters on Sunday, Musharraf alluded to strong economic growth and foreign investment during his tenure

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“At least procedurally he’ll have to go through the courts, and I don’t think the judiciary will be amenable toward him,” says retired Gen. Talat Masood, an analyst. “He’ll be creating problems for the military leadership and creating embarrassment. I don’t think he’s listening to their advice at the moment."

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Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari is currently under pressure from the military on allegations that he was responsible for a secret memo sent to Washington seeking its help in preventing a coup.

  Christian Science Monitor

Which I don’t entirely understand, since Musharraf and the dictatorship he ran after overthrowing an elected government in a military coup were essentially US puppets (oh, yeah, he “won” an election after 8 years of dictatorship and managed 9 months of civilian presidential title until he fled the country under public pressure), and if Musharraf is returning, I’m guessing he’s expecting and getting US backing. Perhaps I’m not looking at it in the right light. Perhaps it’s not that one or the other, current or ex-president, is manipulated by Washington, but that both are. Either way, the US will need to have some influence on the Pak military, which is obviously who's really in charge there, and perhaps the idea is that Musharraf has more influence on them than Zadari was ever able to muster. But what do I know? Sometimes when I don’t know, I like to take wild guesses.

Justin Raimondo, who certainly knows more than I, has a bit different take.

We’ve effectively been at war with Pakistan for months now, and it is only a matter of time before we begin to move in the troops openly, and in a big way

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The reality is that, as usual, we are trying desperately to deal with the "blowback" generated by our previous interventions, which led to the installation of the corrupt Zardari regime in the first place. Although Gen. Musharraf had dutifully honored his agreement with the US to hunt down and hand over al-Qaeda fighters resident in Pakistan, he didn’t have the right "democratic" credentials, a lack the US has been known to overlook in other instances. However, Musharraf’s downfall was assured when he insisted on maintaining Pakistan’s sovereignty and fighting for its own interests, as opposed to playing his assigned role as US sock puppet.
  Justin Raimondo

General Musharraf also refused to punish A.Q. Khan for trading nuclear secrets, but we didn’t raise a stink over that. Unless that was when we decided to back a new horse - Zadari. Shall I stop speculating and do some research? Wait. One more. Zadari, being the husband of Benazir Bhutto was assured the presidency when Bhutto, beloved of the people, was assassinated. So, did Washington have Bhutto assassinated in an attempt to control Pakistan through Zadari once it was clear that we would lose Musharraf?

I could spin some conspiracies if I really put my mind to it.

Okay, on to the research.  Jesus, this is hard.

Raimondo continues...

As the US began to establish closer relations with India, stepping up military cooperation with the Indian armed forces, the Pakistani military and intelligence apparatus, formerly pro-American, began to turn against Uncle Sam: this despite the fact that many of them were trained in the US, or with the benefit of American instructors. As the inevitable "Who lost Pakistan?" analyses make their appearance, one would do well to remember this history.

Oh, lord, if I have to remember something, I’m in trouble. Spinning wild guesses will be much more likely.

[ Pervez Musharraf] is often credited with boosting the country’s economy during his presidency, but his handling of many other issues evoked criticism such as the declaration of emergency rule, suspension of Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, and the alleged acceptance of U.S. drone strikes in Pakistan.

When exiled politicians Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif returned to the country in 2007, popular opinion turned against Musharraf. He resigned from office in 2008 under threat of impeachment.

Just three years later, a Pakistani court issued a warrant for his arrest, alleging involvement in Bhutto’s assassination, and he left the country.

  alJazeera

He’s on Facebook.

But don’t entirely discount my speculations yet, okay?  A little more research into some news sources outside the US might seem to prop me up a bit.

Former President Pervez Musharraf contacted army chief Gen Ashfaq Pervez Kayani to discuss his planned return to Pakistan from self-exile, according to a media report on Monday.

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Musharraf appointed Kayani as the army chief when he took off his military uniform in late 2007.

He was forced by the ruling Pakistan People's Party to resign from the post of President the following year, and has been living in self-exile in London and Dubai since early 2009.

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The channel quoted its sources as further saying that Musharraf would meet former US Secretary of State Colin Powell, British Prime Minister David Cameron, King Abdullah of Jordan and authorities in United Arab Emirates before arriving in Pakistan.

  Times of India

Between 2001 and his eventual departure in 2008, his ‘tight buddy’ President George Bush showered his regime with largesse that defied logic or accountability, thereby allowing the military dictator to boast even now of the ‘successes’ of his regime’s economic management. That economic ‘prosperity’ was eventually exposed for the bubble it was. Many of the country’s problems inherited from Musharraf’s years continue, and arguably have been worsened by the incumbent government’s inept handling, the example of the energy crunch being sufficient to make the point. Musharraf ‘repaid’ Bush’s largesse by framing the dual policy of moving against al Qaeda and supporting the Afghan Taliban, a duality that persists to date. The foundations for the current standoff with the Americans was therefore laid in Musharraf’s years by, on the one hand, making too many secret concessions to the US to operate in Pakistan, and on the other, double dealing Washington.

  Pakistan Daily Times editorial

Perhaps he will be asked at the meeting with Powell and Cameron if he will promise no more “double dealing”.

Wiser counsel would be for him to forget about returning, let alone plunging into Pakistan’s political vortex and instead continuing to bask abroad in the lifestyle he has been enjoying since leaving power. But knowing the General’s high opinion of himself, this is unlikely to happen. End January could turn out more interesting than even the most hardened observer may have imagined.