The
problem of a split Ireland with the southern republic staying in the EU and the UK northern Ireland leaving with Brexit, thereby creating an effective trade border between the two, may not be a problem at all in the very near future.
For the first time in its history, Northern Ireland has elected more Irish-identifying nationalists than pro-British unionists. Across the water, Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has demanded an independence referendum after winning a nationalist landslide.
[...]
In a repeat of the Brexit referendum, the results in England and Wales diverge strongly from Remain-voting Scotland and Northern Ireland. The Brexit heartlands have delivered the biggest mandate in a generation to a Conservative leader who looks close to a caricature of an English Tory toff, and whose appeal does not carry far north of Hadrian's Wall.
[...]
Northern Ireland was carved out of the old Irish province of Ulster a century ago as a home for the two-thirds majority within it who still supported a union with Britain. But over the decades, Catholics — who skew Irish-identifying and nationalist — have steadily increased in number while unionist-leaning Protestants have dwindled. Now, while a firm majority of pensioners are Protestant, a majority of school children are Catholic. The balance is forecast to tip as soon as 2021. The Good Friday peace deal provides for unification with the republic to the south into a united Ireland if a majority is in favor of it.
Politico
Very interesting.
DUP leader Arlene Foster explicitly blamed demographic change as she conceded defeat for the party in North Belfast.
[...]
The DUP's loss of North Belfast could hardly be more symbolic. The seat had always been unionist.
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Until this election it was held by Nigel Dodds. Socially conservative, against same-sex marriage and abortion, the DUP's deputy leader and leader in Westminster was deeply suspicious of the potential for Boris Johnson's Brexit Deal to economically differentiate Northern Ireland from the United Kingdom.
His challenger was Sinn Féin's John Finucane, a 39-year-old lawyer and Lord Mayor of Belfast. It was a battle heavy with history: Finucane is the son of a solicitor who was murdered at the family dinner table by loyalist paramilitaries working in collusion with British state forces, in one of the most notorious murders of the conflict.
[...]
West Belfast is a Sinn Féin stronghold, and losing South Belfast and North Belfast leaves unionists just one MP in the city: Gavin Robinson of East Belfast, who was re-elected with the cross-community Alliance Party not far behind him.
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The cross-community and anti-Brexit Alliance Party won its first seat ever outside of Belfast, unexpectedly taking the traditionally unionist seat of North Down from retiring incumbent.
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"There was a Brexit effect. The most pro-Remain parties made the biggest gains," said Matthew O'Toole, who was a spokesman in Downing Street during the Brexit referendum and now writes and commentates on Brexit and current affairs. "It signals how Northern Ireland is changing ... nationalists and unionists are going to have to persuade this middle ground who are less interested in identity."
Or maybe the middle ground will become the future.
The sight of triumphant SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon [in Scotland] shaking her fists in victory will rattle unionists from Bangor to Belleek.
[...]
The Scottish National Party's landslide — 48 of 59 Scottish seats and 45 percent of the Scottish vote — and renewed mandate for a second independence referendum will rattle unionists across the Irish Sea.
"Unionists will be looking across the water and thinking if Scotland is going to go, then the Union is going to go," said Sarah Creighton, a unionist commentator. "That vote coming through in Scotland is going to make a lot of people nervous."
[Boris] Johnson's decisive majority enables his party to return to its default position toward Northern Ireland's unionists: ignoring them.
Within the space of a year, the DUP has gone from having the power to disrupt international negotiations by threatening a veto, to waiting in line to ask the prime minister nicely and hoping he grants them the favor.
Within the space of a year, the DUP has gone from having the power to disrupt international negotiations by threatening a veto, to waiting in line to ask the prime minister nicely and hoping he grants them the favor.
Living in interesting times.
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