About that "crazy inverted yield curve" Trump wants to blame on the media (and the Fed) ...

...or...Recession coming!

Heidi N. Moore on Twitter

But what if the bond market's apparent malaise, the deepest curve inversion since 2007 (remember what happened then?) were signaling something darker and potentially longer lasting than a turn in the business cycle?

Indeed, the yield curve's alarm bells may be global markets' awkward attempt to put a price on the rapid loss of an intangible but deeply valuable asset: global trust in the United States as a trading partner and more generally as a leader in the pursuit of democracy and human rights.

Take note of one irony: Yes, the yield curve's inverted pattern shows a strong appetite for US government bonds when confidence in the country's political stability is waning. That shouldn't offer any comfort, however: It's merely a sign that frightened investors don't see any other safe investment alternatives to Treasury bonds yet. When Standard & Poor's downgraded US Treasuries in 2011, for instance, bond prices rallied.

The US-driven trade war, which went from counterproductive to just plain bizarre over the last week, is both a reflection of Trump's scorched-Earth strategy and a driver of the yield curve's inversion, because the longer the now multi-pronged conflict lasts, the higher the chances of an economic contraction.

Just as he was purportedly trying to negotiate a cumbersome, wide-ranging deal with China, Trump obliterated whatever smidgen of confidence might be left in his team with a single tweet, threatening new tariffs on Mexico despite a pending trade deal between the US, Mexico and Canada. He then abruptly revoked India's special trading status with the United States, further confounding the outlook.

The trade wars are arguably hitting Trump's vaunted base hardest as farmers across the US suffer the brunt of disruptions and poor consumers suddenly face higher prices on key basic goods, ranging from avocados to autos.

And trade is just one of countless policy areas where chaos itself appears to be the strategy.

  CNN

Continue reading.

...but hey, do what you want...you will anyway.

UPDATE: