Thursday, January 3, 2019

Here's another magazine cover he can hang in his golf clubs



Lately there have been many red days. But the true color of today’s market is golden orange—the hue of the pompadour atop the head of President Donald Trump. Because for better and for worse, this has become Trump’s stock market.

[...]

Few would dispute that Trump is a volatile personality who’s having a volatile presidency. He’s shaken the establishment to its roots. Yet for most of his time in office, volatility in the stock market was below its long-term average, with the exception of a spell in February and March. Investors’ calm always seemed a bit out of step with reality. But fluctuations do tend to increase when prices are trending down, and that’s exactly what happened in 2018’s fourth quarter.

[...]

America finally has a stock market to match the man in the Oval Office.

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Will the market rout chasten him, cause him to retreat from some of the policies and language that have sent markets into a tizzy? Or will it drive him to attack the status quo even more ferociously to prove himself right and recapture some of that bull-market magic?

  Bloomberg
I'm going with the latter.
The fact that stocks have done better on average under Democratic presidents than Republican ones (back to Herbert Hoover) isn’t proof Democrats have a special touch for equities.

But there are times when presidents do matter, a lot, and this is one of them. The Trump tax cuts passed one year ago are an example. They directly benefited the stock market by boosting companies’ after-tax profits, which of course underpin stock valuations. Trump’s deregulation agenda also boosted stock prices.

[...]

There’s even a theory as to why volatility remained low despite the Trump chaos: It’s that investors couldn’t read the confusing signals from Washington, so they ignored them.

[...]

Sometime around the start of October, though, something soured for stocks. The question is what—and who’s to blame. [...] In a string of exultant tweets [Trump] took credit for the bull market; now that stocks are falling, he’s tried to pin the decline’s parentage on others, including Democrats (for pushing the Russia investigation) and Jerome Powell, his choice to chair the Federal Reserve.

[...]

It’s true that the Powell Fed isn’t doing stocks any favors. Investors really don’t like rising interest rates.

[...]

But that shouldn’t let Trump off the hook. [...] His prosecution of the trade war with China, in particular, has rattled investors. The 90-day truce between the two nations, agreed upon at the Group of 20 summit in Buenos Aires on Dec. 1, has done little to buoy the stock market because investors realize that hostilities could erupt again when the cease-fire ends in March. The S&P 500 price-earnings ratio has fallen 13 percent since September. Trump, in general, was the No. 1 thing keeping institutional investors awake at night in a mid-December survey by investment bank RBC Capital Markets.

[...]

Trump’s leadership style is also wearing poorly. His strategy of keeping people guessing and off balance might work well with adversaries, but it alienates friends. “I’m not aware of another U.S. president trying to weaponize uncertainty. And for good reason: It harms American interests as well as foreign ones,” says Steven Davis, a professor at Booth who helped develop an economic policy uncertainty index.

[...]

Stocks can go up even if the president is performing badly and down even if he’s doing well.

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Still, there’s rough justice in calling out the president for the stock market’s decline, simply because he so often cited its rise as evidence of his success.

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At times, Trump seems to be using presidential announcements to goose the market. Stocks rose on Dec. 31, for example, after a weekend tweet in which he said that a phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping on trade had gone well. But that tactic goes only so far: Investors can react badly if reality doesn’t match expectations. Even some of Trump’s biggest supporters see his boasting as an error. “If you’re going to tie yourself to the stock market, you’re going to go down when it goes down,” says Mozloom, the small-business advocate. “As a political matter, he should have anticipated this.”
He anticipates nothing. He simply reacts, like a narcissistic amoeba.
Now it’s Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin who’s in the hot seat. One sign that he knows he’s vulnerable is his desperate attempt to buoy stock prices by issuing a statement the Sunday before Christmas saying the nation’s six biggest banks had “ample liquidity” for lending. That’s the kind of reassurance that’s usually reserved for a crisis.
Your point?
Trump expressed confidence in Mnuchin after that episode, calling him talented and smart, but such reassurances have had short shelf lives.

[...]

But what if the market goes down further or simply bumps along at this lower level?

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The further the stock market falls, the greater the temptation to do something drastic to get back in the black. In game theory, this is known as gambling for resurrection.

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Trump is a long way from that scenario. After all, the market is still up since his election. But he is shedding the advisers—like Cohn, former Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, and former Defense Secretary James Mattis—who tried to keep him from indulging in his darkest impulses. Meanwhile, a partial government shutdown drags on, the Mueller probe seems to be coming to a head, and Democrats are ready to hound him as they take control of the House of Representatives.
Nobody more deserves to be hounded.
The Trump Slump is a bigger phenomenon than just a downturn in the stock market. But every red day on Wall Street is another punch to the president’s gut.
Which, according to him, is where he gets all his good advice. So that's not a good thing.

...but hey, do what you want...you will anyway.

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