Syria Powder Keg

The Islamic State is expected to make its last stand not in Raqqa but in an area that encompasses the borders with Iraq and Jordan and much of Syria’s modest oil reserves, making it important in stabilizing Syria and influencing its neighboring countries.

Whoever lays claim to the sparsely populated area in this 21st-century version of the Great Game not only will take credit for seizing what is likely to be the Islamic State’s last patch of a territorial caliphate in Syria, but also will play an important role in determining Syria’s future and the postwar dynamics of the region.

With the stakes so high, the United States, Iran and Russia are all scrambling for advantage. They are building up their forces and proxy fighters and, increasingly, engaging in inflammatory clashes that threaten to escalate into a larger conflict.

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The contested area also includes desert regions farther south that include several border crossings, including the critical highway connecting Damascus and Baghdad — coveted by Iran as a land route to Lebanon and its ally, the Shiite militia Hezbollah. But what is really at stake are even larger issues. Will the Syrian government re-establish control of the country all the way to its eastern borders? Will the desert straddling the Syrian-Iraqi border remain a no man’s land ripe for militant control? If not, who will dominate there — forces aligned with Iran, Russia or the United States? Which Syrian factions will wield the most influence?

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With President Trump and his newly emboldened Sunni partners in Saudi Arabia and the Persian Gulf turning up the heat against Iran, Tehran and its allies will be determined [...] to show they cannot be intimidated.

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Indeed, on Friday, pro-government forces struck what could be a major blow to American plans, making a surprise advance to the Iraqi border that cut off American-backed troops, blocking their way to the front against Islamic State in Deir al-Zour.

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While saying it does not seek confrontation with the Syrian government or its allies, the United States has begun deliberately bombing them, something it had not done before in the war, hitting Iranian-backed militias it deemed too close to Tanf, the site of the American and rebel garrison.

But the pro-government alliance has not backed down. It has denounced the American presence as illegal and continued to confront the allied forces, culminating in Thursday’s drone strike.

That episode showed that Iranian advisers, or perhaps even Iranian proxies like Hezbollah, are operating full-size drones in Syria and are willing to risk clashes with the United States.

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The lineup of combatants is dizzying.

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[T]he United States is working indirectly in Iraq with Iranian-backed Iraqi Shiite militias — some of the very ones that it has fired on in Syria’s southeastern desert.

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Islamic State fighters are besieging Syrian government forces in the provincial capital, Deir al-Zour, so by routing them, the United States would be helping Mr. Assad, whom it opposes.

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With all these forces on a collision course, several recent escalations have raised fears of a direct confrontation between the United States and Iran, or even Russia.

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Looming over everything is the question of how far Russia is prepared to back Iran.

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The Trump administration has vowed to push back against Iran. Israel, saying it will not tolerate a Hezbollah presence abutting its territory, has been striking pro-government forces in the south.

Saudi Arabia, emboldened by Mr. Trump, has increased the pressure, isolating Qatar in part for its cordial relations with Iran.

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Now, into that volatile mix, toss a battle that will reveal the unsustainable contradictions of the fight against the Islamic State as the forces arrayed against it jockey against one another.

  NYT

...but hey, do what you want...you will anyway.