Thursday, January 10, 2019

And, meanwhile in Turkey...

US national security adviser John Bolton’s visit to Ankara was supposed to be a turning point in Syria’s foreseeable future and for Turkish-US relations.

It was — but not in the sense that was expected. No progress was made in relations between the two NATO allies — Turkey and the United States — which have become increasingly problematic regarding the Syrian theater. On the contrary, Bolton's visit could be deemed a diplomatic disaster.

  al-Monitor
Two diplomatic disasters in the Middle East in one day.
In a way, Bolton and the accompanying delegation — which included US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Joseph Dunford and James Jeffrey, the US special representative for Syria and special envoy for the anti-Islamic State coalition, a title he recently inherited from the former envoy, Brett McGurk — made up the highest level of American policymaking that could be dispatched to any capital.
And Erdoğan refused to meet with them.
Erdogan instead assigned his spokesman, Ibrahim Kalin — whose merit was his good command of the English language and who had nothing to do with policymaking — to meet with the American trio.

[...]

Erdogan left and went to the Turkish parliament to speak at his party’s meeting, where he lambasted Bolton.
Nice.
Referring to Bolton’s statement in Israel on his way to Turkey regarding Kurdish groups in northern Syria, Erdogan roared, “Bolton has made a serious mistake, and whoever thinks like this has also made a mistake. It is not possible for us to make compromises on this point.”

Erdogan was adamant about expressing Turkey's intention to fight the very elements Bolton wanted to protect as the US national security adviser sought to obtain Turkey’s commitment to their security. “We will very soon mobilize to eliminate terrorist organizations in Syria,” Erdogan said, referencing the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), a group that has helped the United States turn back the Islamic State.

“I hope that he got a taste of the world-famous Turkish hospitality during his visit," Fahrettin Altun, head of communications for the Turkish presidency, wrote on Twitter after Bolton left Ankara empty-handed.

In the world of diplomacy, rarely would such an insulting assessment from an official of the host country be recorded. He also wrote on Twitter, “Turkey’s national security is non-negotiable,” indicating the total failure of talks with the American side.
Scorned, hurt pride, humiliation. A recipe for Bolton retaliation.
Turkey has its own plan, which was revealed in an op-ed piece that Erdogan wrote for The New York Times on Jan. 7 titled “Erdogan: Trump is Right on Syria. Turkey Can Get the Job Done” — a clear indication of Erdogan's wish to play the game with Trump.

[...]

Erdogan's proposals go counter to the avowed objectives defined by Bolton.

Those proposals may also not convince US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. While defending Trump’s decision on the withdrawal of troops from Syria], his wording caused Turkish outrage: “Not only the withdrawal," Pompeo said, "but all other elements the president laid out — the importance of ensuring that the Turks don’t slaughter the Kurds.”

[...]

Will Erdogan make the audacious move and send more Turkish armed forces into Syria to fight against the YPG, which Bolton and the Pentagon’s partners on the ground warn against?

[...]

Turkish-American relations and the near future of Syria and its Kurds hang on the unpredictability of Trump and the limits of Erdogan's adventurism.

[...]

In the aftermath of Bolton’s mission, the two countries have once again reached a crisis point. Erdogan will be waiting for Trump to overrule his aides, who provoked the ire of the Turks.
Chaos. Trump's only success.

...but hey, do what you want...you will anyway.

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