The stock market in Trump times

During his first full year in office, Trump tweeted the phrase “stock market” 46 times, almost once a week.

Since January 26th, when the market topped out at 2,872, and headed into a correction, Trump has only Tweeted about it twice.

One of those Tweets decried the seeming incongruence between the market and the steady stream of good economic news.

“In the “old days,” when good news was reported, the Stock Market would go up. Today, when good news is reported, the Stock Market goes down. Big mistake, and we have so much good (great) news about the economy!” he lamented.

  

"Big mistake"? It's not like the stock market is a sentient being making choices.

It’s possible the markets have stalled because the big market rally at the end of 2016 and for most of 2017 was an early indicator of sorts of the growing economy traders expected from tax cuts under Trump.

But Trump’s move to impose tariffs on foreign steel and aluminum and goods from China has also rattled Wall Street, where worries about a growing trade war are common.

“The markets were lulled into a sense of complacency in the first year of the president’s term,” said Michael Cembalest, chairman of market and investment strategy for J.P. Morgan Asset Management. “This year you’re getting the other side of Trumpism.”

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Trump’s trade policy is putting a drag on stocks.

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There are also some things that are out of Trump’s control — most notably the Federal Reserve’s plans to raise interest rates.

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Viewed from the beginning of his term, Trump has enjoyed a robust market and unemployment that, at 3.8 percent, is at a nearly two-decade-low.

While nobody expects a recession in the coming year, surveys show analysts expect one by the 2020 presidential elections.

Big mistake.

 ...but hey, do what you want...you will anyway.