Early warning signs

From HOLDING THE LINE: Inside Trump’s Pentagon With Secretary Mattis by Guy M. Snodgrass, Commander, US Navy (Ret.), to be published on October 29th by Sentinel, an imprint of The Penguin Publishing Group, a division of Penguin Random House, LLC. Copyright © 2019 by Guy M. Snodgrass

Trump had declared America’s unilateral withdrawal from the Paris Agreement. He was also threatening to dismantle the nuclear deal with Iran, withdraw from NATO, pull U.S. forces back from South Korea, Germany and Japan, give Russia a pass on its electoral interference in the 2016 election, and, in his spare time, start a war with North Korea.

In private, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and [Defense Secretary James] Mattis feared these actions signaled America’s diminished authority as a world leader and emboldened China, Russia and Iran to fill the vacuum.

[...]

If anyone could change the president’s mind, it was Mattis. He had maintained a close relationship with Trump since he was confirmed in early 2017, visiting the White House two or three times a week for meetings, lunch and sometimes dinner. It was obvious to us that Trump valued Mattis’ opinion and simply liked having him around to bounce ideas off.

  Politico

I suspect he just liked the idea of rubbing shoulders with generals.

The plan for [President Trump's first Pentagon] briefing was for Mattis to speak first, walking Trump through details on every U.S. military deployment abroad, demonstrating America’s return on investment. Tillerson would follow with slides on U.S. embassies and missions abroad. National Economic Council Director Gary Cohn would speak last to highlight the importance of global trade flows.

[...]

Trump took his place at the head of the table with a frown fixed on his face. Offering few greetings to anyone, he sat with his arms crossed, refusing to look at Mattis. To me it seemed that his mind was already made up. He appeared to see this entire briefing as pointless [...] .

[...]

Mattis continued with his briefing, walking through in exacting detail the force ratios in each major geographic location. He sought to convince the president that our allies and partners put forward far more troops in support of stability abroad than America does. In short, America gets a good deal from an overseas military presence.

The president frowned, fiddling with the papers in front of him while glancing around the room.

[...]

Mattis’ third slide triggered a stronger response from Trump. A visual depiction of our Pacific posture, this slide zoomed in on the U.S. forces located in Japan and South Korea—forces that had kept the peace in both countries for more than six decades.

[...]

Mattis loved this slide because it outlined the significant contributions both nations were making, with Japan footing part of the bill to shift U.S. Marines from Okinawa to Guam, and South Korea paying to move Army soldiers to a new base. He emphasized to the president the importance of Japan paying to offset the costs for a new base, saying it was the first time in history they’d done so.

“Who is paying the rest of the bill for the move to Guam?” the president demanded. He was upset that Japan was only covering a part of the total costs required to relocate the base.

There was silence. But only briefly.

“Our trade agreements are criminal,” Trump thundered—despite the fact that Mattis was not talking about anything trade-related. “Japan and South Korea are taking advantage of the United States.” This was decidedly not the message Mattis’ slide intended to convey.

Out of nowhere, the president added, “And the USS Ford [the navy’s newest aircraft carrier] is completely out of control with cost overruns!”

[...]

Twenty-five minutes later, it was Tillerson’s turn to run the gauntlet. Tillerson was by nature a slow talker. I could tell at once that was not an endearing quality to Trump. “This is one big monster created over a number of years. Japan … Germany … South Korea … our allies are costing more than anyone else at the table!” Again, not the message any of us had intended.

Then the president paused. His eyes seemed animated by a thought.

[...]

“I just returned from France,” he said. “Did you see President Macron’s handshake?” he asked no one in particular. “He wouldn’t let go. He just kept holding on. I spent two hours at Bastille Day. Very impressive.”

A pause.

“I want a ‘Victory Day.’ Just like Veterans Day. The Fourth of July is too hot,” he said, apparently out of nowhere. “I want vehicles and tanks on Main Street. On Pennsylvania Avenue, from the Capitol to the White House. We need spirit! We should blow everybody away with this parade. The French had an amazing parade on Bastille Day with tanks and everything. Why can’t we do that?”

No doubt that was all he was thinking about the entire time he was being briefed.

Mattis and his team’s response to the president’s suggestion made clear that they were adamantly opposed to a military parade down Pennsylvania Avenue. Mattis and others voiced concern that a parade like what Trump wanted would harken back to Soviet Union—like displays of authoritarian power. Mattis stated that precious taxpayer dollars would be better spent elsewhere, and that the optics of such a display of power would boomerang, causing more harm to America’s international prestige than any domestic benefit could outweigh. Mattis was also concerned that a parade would risk eroding the military’s long-standing apolitical reputation.

It didn’t matter—Trump was serious. Mattis deflected and played for more time by saying, “We’ll take a look at some options and get back to you, Mr. President.”

And that's what Trump announced after the meeting. That was his important "take-away message".  The Pentagon is looking into having a military parade.  They told him it would cost too much, so he acquiesced, but only for the moment.  He eventually got his parade.

Over time Mattis began to shut down, sitting back in his chair with a distant, defeated look on his face. He had cared so much about this meeting, had poured his heart and soul into it, and had believed firmly in his ability to bring Trump around to his way of thinking. None of his attempts were working. From my vantage point, Mattis was playing a game of chess against a president fixated on “Rock, Paper, Scissors.”

Mattis did not think Trump was a raving lunatic, as some were trying to portray the president. In fact, Mattis had made a point of noting to us that America elected Trump for a reason. That the president had tremendous political skills, a sharp intuition and a formidable business career.

That kind of thinking is what kept Mattis at a disadvantage. Trump has none of those characteristics.

But still Trump could tax Mattis’ patience, and the president’s view of the world was both simplistic and troublesome.

[...]

Across the table from Mattis, Tillerson also became increasingly frustrated, jousting verbally with the president before becoming so exasperated that he stopped talking completely for the last half-hour of the meeting. Tillerson sat back in his chair with his arms crossed, an incredulous scowl on his face as he shot pointed looks over to Mattis.

[...]

For the remainder of the meeting, Trump veered from topic to topic—Syria, Mexico, a recent Washington Post story he didn’t like—like a squirrel caught in traffic, dashing one way and then another.

The issues were complicated, yet all of the president’s answers were simplistic and ad hoc. He was shooting from the hip on issues of global importance.

With that, the meeting ended.

[...]

Despite the challenging environment that existed between the Pentagon and the White House, Mattis was able to score a succession of victories over the next eight months: releasing the nation’s first national defense strategy after going more than 10 years without one; [...]

Does anyone know to this day what that is?

[...] working with coalition and Kurdish forces to bring ISIS to the edge of defeat in Syria;

How'd that work out?

[...] and working with Congress to restore funding to begin rebuilding a badly depleted military.

Yes, Trump keeps telling people that Mattis told him the military didn't have any ammunition.

...but hey, do what you want...you will anyway.

UPDATE: Apparently Mattis isn't as fond of his former aide as the aide is of him.

“General Mattis hasn’t read the book and doesn’t intend to,” Mattis’ assistant wrote in an email, referring to retired Navy Cmdr. Guy Snodgrass’ forthcoming memoir, “Holding the Line: Inside Trump’s Pentagon with Secretary Mattis.”

The book, which portrays Mattis fending off capricious demands from Trump and voicing private fears that the president was weakening U.S. national security, will be released Oct. 29.

“Mr. Snodgrass was a junior staffer who took notes in some meetings but played no role in decision making. His choice to write a book reveals an absence of character,” Mattis’ assistant, Candace Currier, wrote in the statement, adding that “surreptitiously taking notes without authorization for a self-promoting personal project is a clear violation of that trust.”

Snodgrass “may receive a few brief moments of attention for this book. But those moments will be greatly outweighed by the fact that to get them, he surrendered his honor,” the statement continued.

  Politico