Thursday, June 8, 2017

Meanwhile in Britain

Why did Theresa May call for today's early election anyway?

Here's an article analyzing that move from May 2:
In the aftermath of David Cameron’s resignation, the Conservatives held an internal election, but in the end May’s rivals fell apart, leaving her as the only choice left. This is not the stuff of mandates.

With one fell swoop, May can consolidate support, strengthen her Brexit negotiating position, and expand her party’s advantage.

Although conservatives appear to have a sizable advantage over Labour — 330 to 229 — this is misleading. There are 650 seats, meaning a majority requires 326. While the Conservative Party has a majority, and while an oppositional coalition remains unlikely, there is much to be gained by shoring up and even expanding this already-held advantage.


Given these political realities, there appears to be little downside, and much to be gained, by calling for this election. Which is why May’s move is being touted as politically savvy.
And here's the current analysis:
May called a snap election in April, aiming to increase that majority substantially. Given that, at the time, the Conservatives had a lead in the polls of some 20 points, it appeared likely that her party would crush a Labour Party still recovering from the fallout of its 2015 defeat.

But in the near two months since, May has come under fire for her policy U-turns and cuts to the police force during a campaign interrupted by terrorist attacks in Manchester and London. Some polls at the weekend even had the Tory lead as low as just one percent.

May may be regretting her decision.

...but hey, do what you will anyway.

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