Sunday, July 17, 2016

Brexit Snag

Whether by design or by taking advantage of an opportunity that fell into her lap, Britain's new PM, Theresa May, has found a way to either block Brexit or put it on hold indefinitely. She says she will invoke article 50, instigating the official EU pull out only when a "UK-wide approach" has been agreed to.

This gives Scotland, who voted in their own referendum a couple of years ago to remain in the UK so they could remain in the EU, a theoretical veto on Brexit. And it gives May a way to block Brexit (which she was against) without taking the blame.
[Scottish First Minister Nicola] Sturgeon has consistently said she will not allow the UK to take Scotland out of the EU against its wishes, the country having voted overwhelmingly to remain during last month’s referendum.

“We are in uncharted territory and when you are in uncharted territory with basically a blank sheet of paper in front of you, you have an opportunity to think things that might have previously been unthinkable,” she said.

“Scotland did not vote for any of those consequences. We voted by a significant margin to avoid those consequences and stay in. That gives me a mandate to try to protect our relationship with the EU. If that is not possible within the UK well then I have been very clear that the option of a second independence referendum has to be on the table.”

If the UK were to leave the EU, and Scotland attempted to rejoin after voting for independence, it would have to agree to less favourable conditions, such as joining the euro and the open border zone. Ms Sturgeon has previously said Scotland could remain in the EU while England and Wales leave it, but this is legally complex.

  Independent
And certainly no guarantee. If Scotland is economically problematic, the rest of the EU might block their entry.
“Things have changed fundamentally. There is a mood there and what I encountered in Brussels was a warmth, an openness and a great sympathy to the position that Scotland finds itself in.

“Nobody was saying to me, and I certainly wasn’t assuming, that it would be easy and there are significant challenges along the way. But there was a certain openness that the Scottish government has not found previously in Brussels and certainly didn’t encounter during the 2014 independence referendum.”
Good luck to all. There will needs be some very fine needle threading and maneuvering going forward.

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